920
FXUS64 KTSA 021645
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN EXITS THIS MORNING. OVERALL, DRY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, TAKING ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT. AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXIT THE AREA IT WILL FORCE A
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE IT STALLS, WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL PLEASANT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY
FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 412 AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER
60/LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE
MEANINGFUL RAIN TOTALS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THOSE THAT SEE CLEARER SKIES. HOW
LONG THE CLOUDS STAY AROUND WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
SKIES CLEAR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE POINTS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD CLEAR SOONER ALLOWING HIGHS TO BUMP UP NEAR 60 DEGREES
AGAIN.
A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. AN UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON AND
MANY FUELS REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY, KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPENING
WESTERN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
BROKEN/OVERCAST MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD BECOME
MAINLY SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
BEHIND A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS REMAIN THROUGH MID MORNING WITH THE GREATER
POTENTIAL OVER WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT, MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD BACK OVER THE
CWA, ALONG WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD VARY BETWEEN EAST AND NORTHERLY FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 60 34 51 32 / 10 10 0 0
FSM 62 44 57 34 / 30 10 0 0
MLC 67 40 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 56 29 50 27 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 61 39 51 30 / 50 10 0 0
BYV 57 39 48 30 / 40 10 0 0
MKO 64 39 53 32 / 10 10 0 0
MIO 57 34 48 30 / 10 0 0 0
F10 64 38 54 32 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 69 46 60 35 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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