652
FXUS64 KTSA 022318
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
518 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- OVERALL, DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TODAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A QUICK MOVING MID LEVEL WAVE THAT BROUGHT SOME SHOWERS TO PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WILL EXIT THE
AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO, TAKING ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT. AS THE WAVE AND SURFACE LOW EXIT THE AREA IT WILL FORCE A
BOUNDARY INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BEFORE IT STALLS, WITH BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS LASTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE RESULT WILL BE
COOLER, BUT STILL PLEASANT, AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES THAN YESTERDAY
FROM NEAR HIGHWAY 412 AND POINTS TO THE NORTH. HIGHS WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL RANGING FROM THE MID 50S IN THE NORTH TO UPPER
60/LOW 70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR
EASTERN OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SAW MORE
MEANINGFUL RAIN TOTALS. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED
WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT INCREASING LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL
ACCOMPANY THE DISTURBANCE AS IT TRACKS QUICKLY ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA. THE INCREASING CLOUDS WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FOR THOSE THAT SEE CLEARER SKIES. HOW
LONG THE CLOUDS STAY AROUND WILL GREATLY IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES FOR
SATURDAY. LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 FOR MOST OF THE DAY BEFORE
SKIES CLEAR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE POINTS FURTHER WEST AND
SOUTH SHOULD CLEAR SOONER ALLOWING HIGHS TO BUMP UP NEAR 60 DEGREES
AGAIN.
A COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER
THE REGION. ANOTHER WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE ON SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS RETURN TO THE REGION. AN UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME AS WINDS BECOME BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON AND
MANY FUELS REMAIN DRY. ANOTHER WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
FORECAST ON TUESDAY, KNOCKING TEMPS BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A DEEPENING
WESTERN TROUGH TAKING SHAPE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AND TRACKING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WITH SOME THUNDER POTENTIAL
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY
AT THIS TIME FOR OUR FORECAST AREA, BUT DETAILS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED. TEMPERATURE GENERALLY REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ERN OK AND NWRN AR BETWEEN SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS - THE FIRST OF WHICH HAS SHIFTED INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER
VALLEY AND THE SECOND OF WHICH IS TRANSLATING INTO WTX EARLY THIS
EVENING. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE SECOND SHORT WAVE DIGS INTO THE AREA. MORE IMPACTFUL
AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST SITES BY
MIDNIGHT, AS MVFR CEILINGS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR VISIBILITIES
IN FOG ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NWRN AR, LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH
MID/LATE SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR EARLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ERN OK SITES AND LATE AFTERNOON NWRN AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 51 32 57 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 44 57 34 57 / 10 0 0 0
MLC 40 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 50 27 56 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 39 51 30 55 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 39 48 30 53 / 10 0 0 0
MKO 39 53 32 57 / 10 0 0 0
MIO 34 48 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
F10 38 54 32 59 / 10 0 0 0
HHW 46 60 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...69
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