048
FXUS64 KTSA 030449
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1049 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE FOG THREAT RATHER LIMITED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE TYPICAL JANUARY LEVELS. THE NBM IS
LIKELY UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF HANGING ONTO POPS TOO LONG INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WILL LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
VFR WITH WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL AT ALL FORECAST SITES LATE THIS EVENING, BUT EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO DECREASE AT ALL SITES NEXT FEW HOURS AS MVFR
CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE AREA. SREF DATA EVEN INDICATE HIGH
PROBABILITIES OF IFR CEILINGS AT MLC AND FSM, WITH PROBABILITIES
SLIGHTLY LOWER AT OTHER NWRN AR SITES. MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG
ARE MOST LIKELY ACROSS NWRN AR, LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH MID/LATE
SATURDAY MORNING. CEILINGS IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY ERN OK SITES
AND MID AFTERNOON NWRN AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 34 51 31 57 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 44 57 34 58 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 40 55 31 59 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 29 49 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 39 51 28 55 / 10 0 0 0
BYV 39 48 30 54 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 39 52 31 58 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 34 48 29 56 / 10 0 0 0
F10 38 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 46 58 34 59 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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