183
FXUS64 KTSA 031334
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
734 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 733 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 733 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MO/AR/LA THIS MORNING, WITH A PV MAX AT ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN LA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
OK. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
SOME COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD CLOSER TO THE 25TH %ILE
IN THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD, AS WELL AS CONSMOS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEW CAM GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER, BUT WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WAS HESITANT TO LOWER
FORECAST TEMPS TOO MUCH.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE FOG THREAT RATHER LIMITED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE TYPICAL JANUARY LEVELS. THE NBM IS
LIKELY UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF HANGING ONTO POPS TOO LONG INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WILL LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO
SCATTER OUT LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE REGION. BY THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT, SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD START OUT NORTHERLY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS AND BECOME VARIABLE TONIGHT AS WINDS BEGIN TO RETURN
FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 31 57 45 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 56 34 58 38 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 31 59 46 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 47 26 57 38 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 50 28 55 39 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 46 30 54 41 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 50 31 58 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 45 29 56 42 / 0 0 0 0
F10 51 30 58 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 34 59 42 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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