462
FXUS64 KTSA 031714
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1114 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM TOMORROW THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 733 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MO/AR/LA THIS MORNING, WITH A PV MAX AT ITS BASE OVER NORTHERN LA.
AT THE SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE SABINE RIVER
VALLEY NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER, WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN/WESTERN
OK. THE RESULTING NORTHERLY WIND IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
SOME COLD ADVECTION AND HIGH TEMPS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY. TRENDED FORECAST HIGHS DOWNWARD CLOSER TO THE 25TH %ILE
IN THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SPREAD, AS WELL AS CONSMOS. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NEW CAM GUIDANCE IS EVEN COLDER, BUT WITH
SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WAS HESITANT TO LOWER
FORECAST TEMPS TOO MUCH.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
SOME PATCHY FOG REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY MORNING FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, ALTHOUGH INCREASING
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP THE FOG THREAT RATHER LIMITED. THE
AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
DAY, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER
50S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CST FRI JAN 2 2026
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE SUNDAY, WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES THEN EXPECTED FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SOMEWHAT AS WELL. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE
ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS BEFORE WINDS
RETURN OUT OF THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AS WELL.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LATE NEXT
WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND, BUT WILL LIKELY ONLY KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO MORE TYPICAL JANUARY LEVELS. THE NBM IS
LIKELY UP TO ITS OLD TRICKS OF HANGING ONTO POPS TOO LONG INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WILL LEAVE THEM ALONE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1114 AM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS WILL BRING IFR TO LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS AT THE NW AR
TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 21Z. THERE IS A CHANCE LOW CLOUDS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KBVO MOVE IN THERE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
WELL. AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH A POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF SOME
LIGHT MVFR FOG POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR NW AR AROUND DAYBREAK. HIGH
CLOUD WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY, ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SOUTH
WIND.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 57 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 34 59 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 32 60 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 57 38 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 56 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 55 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 31 57 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 29 55 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 31 58 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 58 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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