949
FXUS64 KTSA 040452
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1052 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP TO SOME DEGREE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOMEWHAT IN ALL AREAS DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER THAN IT APPEARED YESTERDAY, SO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NOW LOOK TO SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE ON THAT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED NWRN AR SITES, BUT IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ABUNDANT LOW CLOUDS/IFR CIGS NOT TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF THESE SITES. LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NWRN AR, WITH
MVFR VSBYS STILL FORECAST WITH TEMPO IFR POSSIBLE. MVFR
VISIBILITIES LIKELY TO PERSIST NWRN AR SITES THROUGH MID MORNING
SUNDAY, THEN VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AT ERN OK SITES.
LIGHT WIND TONIGHT BECOMES SOUTHERLY SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 31 56 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 34 59 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 32 59 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 25 55 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 27 56 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 29 56 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 31 56 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 29 54 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 31 56 46 71 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 35 58 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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