795
FXUS64 KTSA 041406
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 805 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- AREAS OF DENSE FOG OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU OF FAR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE IMPACTING TRAVEL THIS
MORNING.
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL LIKELY INCREASES SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
MADE AN UPDATE TO THE GOING FORECAST TO EXTEND AND EXPAND THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY USING CONSSHORT (BASICALLY A BLEND OF SHORT-
TERM MODELS) VISIBILITY PROGS. TEMPS ARE HOVERING NEAR FREEZING
AS WELL, SO A MENTION OF PATCHY FREEZING FOG WAS ADDED AS WELL.
THE LATE SUNRISE AS WELL AS INCREASING HIGH CLOUD MAY SLOW THE
NORMAL PROCESS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND BURNING OFF OF THE FOG.
ALSO USED CONSSHORT FOR WINDS/GUSTS FOR THE AFTERNOON, WITH SOUTH
WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS NE OK AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN US AND THE LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE ON THE HIGH PLAINS.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG, TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A
WARMING TREND SUNDAY AS SOUTH WINDS RETURN. CONSIDERABLE HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIMIT THE WARMUP TO SOME DEGREE, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 50S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING THE AFTERNOON IN
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AS THE SOUTH WINDS INCREASE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM CST SAT JAN 3 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 20-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL EACH
DAY. BREEZY SOUTH WINDS MONDAY WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SOMEWHAT IN ALL AREAS DESPITE A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA BY
TUESDAY, RESULTING IN LIGHTER WINDS.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO BRING INCREASING SHOWER
CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO BE ABOUT 12
HOURS SLOWER THAN IT APPEARED YESTERDAY, SO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY NOW LOOK TO SEE THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR MAY ARRIVE FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND, BUT WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND
SEE ON THAT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
ONGOING LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS OVER FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO LATE MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR. BROKEN/SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ARE THEN
FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS START OUT
LIGHT/VARIABLE AND BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE WEAKENING AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS KFSM
WHERE AN EASTERLY WIND COMPONENT IS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 57 45 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 59 40 71 49 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 59 46 71 50 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 56 39 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 56 41 68 48 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 56 42 67 51 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 56 43 70 47 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 54 42 67 46 / 0 0 0 0
F10 57 46 71 46 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 57 43 70 51 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR OKZ063-069.
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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