376
FXUS64 KTSA 042336
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
536 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 535 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
FOG HAS FINALLY ERODED LATE THIS MORNING, BUT LOW-LEVEL CLOUD
STILL REMAIN FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME, GENERALLY LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL
PERSIST. HOWEVER, WILL STILL BE MONITORING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST
OK. LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION SHOW SOUTHERLY
WINDS BEGINNING TO INCREASE DUE TO A TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH WILL BE COMMON. FIRE SPREAD
RATES AROUND 100 FT/MIN WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
OSAGE, PAWNEE, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CREEK COUNTIES.
A MUCH MORE MILD EVENING AND NIGHT IS FORECAST TONIGHT AS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM LOW-MID
40S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WHERE CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO CLEAR AND WINDS ARE
LIGHT ENOUGH. OTHERWISE, THE LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD HELP LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO THIS MORNING.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WORKWEEK. AT THE
SURFACE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT DURING THE
DAYTIME MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS AROUND 30-35 MPH
APPEAR LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. DESPITE MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED INTO THE AREA, FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY ARISE LATE IN THE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A DRYLINE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
OK AND INTO PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OK, WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BETWEEN 30-35
PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE DRYLINE. ALTHOUGH THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL CAUSE LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR MOST SPOTS, THE
MORE HEIGHTENED CONCERNS FOR FIRE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS OSAGE,
PAWNEE, CREEK, OKFUSKEE, AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF TULSA AND
OKMULGEE COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S EACH AFTERNOON, OR ABOUT 20+ DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. A
WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. BUT WITH VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH AND VIRTUALLY NO COLD AIR BEHIND IT, THE BOUNDARY WILL BE
MORE OF A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT THAN ANYTHING ELSE. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL QUICKLY RETURN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
THE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING AS A BAJA UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE AND
APPROACHES THE PLAINS. MODEST TO STRONG LIFTING AND INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS IN MODELS AND ENSEMBLES HAVE SLOWED
DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL TIMING SLIGHTLY, AS
WELL AS HAVE PRODUCED A SLIGHT UPTICK IN QPF COMPARED TO 24 HOURS
AGO. THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES IN MODELS WITH NOT ONLY THE
TIMING, BUT THE EVOLUTION, AND ORIENTATION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. FOR EXAMPLE, THE 00Z EC SOLUTION SWINGS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS, AHEAD OF A SEPARATE, PARENT TROUGH/LOW
FOLLOWING BEHIND IT. MEANWHILE, THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION INTEGRATES
THE TWO TROUGHS TOGETHER AS THEY SWING ACROSS THE PLAINS. BOTH
SOLUTIONS HAVE FAIRLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES WITH BOTH RAINFALL TIMING
AND WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN AXIS WILL SET UP. NEEDLESS TO SAY, WILL
NEED TO CONTINUE MONITORING TRENDS AND WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A
BETTER HANDLE OF WHAT IS TO COME OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES, WENT AHEAD AND POPULATED THE LATEST NBM
SOLUTION. FOR NOW, RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK TO STAY GENERALLY
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS, LOCALLY UP TO TWO INCHES, WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS FOCUSED ON THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.
A COLD FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM ON FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. THIS
FRONT WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSER SEASONAL AVERAGE BY
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AND LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FRIDAY-SUNDAY LOOK SLIM AT THIS TIME.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL FORECAST SITES THIS EVENING, NOW THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED FSM. ABUNDANT MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS
OVER THE REGION IS HAMPERING ABILITY TO RESOLVE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE IT CONTINUES
ACROSS SERN OK AND SWRN AR, LIKELY NOT FAR FROM FSM. CONTINUED SOME
POTENTIAL OF MVFR CIG AT FSM FOR SEVERAL HOURS INTO THE FORECAST.
LIGHT WIND PERSISTS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, BUT MVFR VSBYS IN FOG
POSSIBLE NWRN AR SITES, ESPECIALLY FSM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURES CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND BECOMES GUSTY BY LATE MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 44 71 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 71 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 47 71 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 38 71 40 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 42 68 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 66 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 43 69 47 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 66 45 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 71 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 42 68 50 71 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...69
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