794
FXUS64 KTSA 050453
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1053 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY, ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY WILL LESSEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE QUITE LOW. SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
COLDER WEATHER, BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT ALL FORECAST SITES LATE THIS EVENING,
BUT MVFR VSBY IN FOG EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS NWRN AR SITES AND
BVO. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LLWS ERN OK SITES THROUGH
ABOUT 12-13Z. MVFR VSBY NWRN AR SITES AND BVO, ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS, IMPROVES BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WIND BECOMES GUSTY BY LATE MORNING WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KT NERN OK
AND NWRN AR SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 44 69 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 39 71 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 47 69 47 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 38 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 42 67 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 42 66 50 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 43 70 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 42 66 44 66 / 0 0 0 0
F10 46 69 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 42 68 50 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...69
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