897
FXUS64 KTSA 051401
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
801 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 801 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SW KS, WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES UP AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, A TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THAT FEATURE
AND RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING ALOFT, THERE IS LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGHING
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
BROUGHT THE THICK HIGH CLOUD YESTERDAY HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES
LIES JUST TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE RESULT IS MUCH LESS HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AND MORE INSOLATION AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. ONCE WE GET SOME MIXING OF THE BL, SOUTH WINDS/GUSTS
WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT, THOUGH NOT ADVISORY LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAKING THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY S TO SW WINDS AND DECREASING
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA, WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE, LIMITING THE OVERALL THREAT.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY, ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY WILL LESSEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE QUITE LOW. SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
COLDER WEATHER, BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EXTEND ACROSS E OK AND NW AR WITH
POTENTIAL IFR TO LIFR IMPACTS THROUGH MID MORNING AT MOST
TERMINALS. VFR CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS THEN EXPECTED FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY WITH WINDS DECREASING AND BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
BULK OF SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS AN EXPANDING AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOPING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TUESDAY.
THIS FORECAST WILL FOLLOW THAT TREND WITH LOW CEILINGS DEVELOPING.
LATER FORECASTS ARE LIKELY TO LOWER CEILING FORECASTS FURTHER IF
GUIDANCE REMAINS SIMILAR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 44 69 40 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 71 48 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 70 47 71 40 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 70 37 69 33 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 67 45 70 35 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 66 50 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 69 45 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 66 44 66 37 / 0 0 0 0
F10 70 45 70 40 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 68 50 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07
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