026
FXUS64 KTSA 051726
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1126 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1126 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASES MONDAY, ESPECIALLY FOR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 801 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
SW KS, WITHIN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT STRETCHES UP AND DOWN
THE HIGH PLAINS. TO THE EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW, A TIGHTER
GRADIENT HAS SET UP OVER THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN THAT FEATURE
AND RIDGING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOOKING ALOFT, THERE IS LOW-
AMPLITUDE RIDGING OVER THE PLAINS DOWNSTREAM FROM UPPER TROUGHING
NEAR THE WEST COAST. THE PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
BROUGHT THE THICK HIGH CLOUD YESTERDAY HAS BEEN SHUNTED TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST, WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE POLAR WESTERLIES
LIES JUST TO OUR NORTH TODAY. THE RESULT IS MUCH LESS HIGH CLOUD
TODAY AND MORE INSOLATION AFTER LOW CLOUDS SCATTER OUT COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY. ONCE WE GET SOME MIXING OF THE BL, SOUTH WINDS/GUSTS
WILL PICK UP QUITE A BIT, THOUGH NOT ADVISORY LEVEL. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, MAKING THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES, BREEZY S TO SW WINDS AND DECREASING
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA, WILL RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM
THE SOUTH WILL KEEP MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE, LIMITING THE OVERALL THREAT.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN MONDAY, ALONG WITH
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S
TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST SUN JAN 4 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
DESPITE THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. LIGHTER WINDS TUESDAY WILL LESSEN FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS SOMEWHAT, ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
BE QUITE LOW. SOUTH WINDS RETURN WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR AT TIMES. THIS WILL BE OUR BEST CHANCE AT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL SINCE BEFORE THANKSGIVING.
COLDER WEATHER, BUT STILL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT. IN ADDITION, SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUD BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE
OUACHITAS AS IT IS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF LOW CLOUD, LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM I-44 SOUTHWARD. USED TEMPO IFR
CIG/VSBY AT MOST SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH MOS GUIDANCE
NOT SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. BOTH STATISTICAL AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
HIT THE FOG HARD AT FSM, SO USED A PREVAILING LIFR MENTION THERE.
IN ADDITION, A PERIOD OF LLWS CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
WHERE WINDS LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT REMAIN STRONG OFF THE DECK
AHEAD OF TROUGH.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 49 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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