037
FXUS64 KTSA 051750
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1150 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
ANOTHER ABNORMALLY WARM AND BREEZY DAY HAS TRANSPIRED ACROSS
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW SOUTHERLY WIND
GUSTS ALREADY AVERAGING BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH FOR MOST PLACES.
MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED TO NEAR 60 DEGREES AS
OF 11 AM. MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE AN UPTICK IN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS, SPECIFICALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF I-44 AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 WHERE FIRE SPREAD RATES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN
100-150 FT/MIN UNTIL WINDS SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. DAILY HIGH
RECORDS AT TULSA (70F, 1955/56), FAYETTEVILLE (68F, 1955/97), AND
FORT SMITH (72F, 1955/97) WILL ALL BE THREATENED THIS AFTERNOON AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CLIMB TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, PUSHING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA
BY MID-LATE TUESDAY MORNING. IN RESPONSE, WINDS WILL DECREASE
SHARPLY, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED, GUIDANCE HAS SHOW
STRONG SIGNALS OF FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE FOG IS STILL SOMEWHAT
UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME, BUT INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG AND WIDESPREAD
FOG IN LOCATIONS WHERE GUIDANCE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHEST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD, MOSTLY MID-UPPER
40S.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AFTER A BREEZY
START TO THE EVENING TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE
AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH, TURNING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT FIRE SPREAD RATES AND LESSEN THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. OVERALL, THE FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BUT OTHERWISE WILL LIKELY
GO MOSTLY UNNOTICED.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER BAJA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW A HUGE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT VALUES
WILL RISE WELL OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. PER CLIMATOLOGY, PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN THE
97-99TH PERCENTILE (1-1.25 INCHES). A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW PWATS EVEN APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE ECMWF EFI FOR QPF HAS VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-0.7 FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR AND A SHIFT OF TAILS
JUST > 0, WHICH SIGNALS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FAIRLY UNUSUAL RAIN
EVENT, BUT LESS THAN AN EXTREME EVENT.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INCREASE QPF
VALUES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED FARTHER NORTH HELPING TO PRODUCE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY CROSS NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHERE THE MAIN QPF AXIS
WILL SETUP, WAFFLING THE AXIS NORTH AND SOUTH OF I-44 WITH EACH
RUN. CONSENSUS FROM MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE MULTIPLE TRAINING OR SWATHS OF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN,
WITH LOCATIONS OF WHERE THESE SWATHS SETUP STILL UNKNOWN. AS FAR
AS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, CURRENT
THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. HIGHER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS AND/OR UNDERNEATH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS.
APPROPRIATELY, THE WPC HAS MOST OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION AND THE MAIN, PARENT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND SPEED
OF THE APPROACHING MAIN, PARENT TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER AND HAS THE TROUGH DIPPING FARTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN WOULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POSSIBLY SOME WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. A QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH PROGRESSION WOULD
SUGGEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN THE NBM
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, WHICH FAVORS MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND KEEPS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EASTERN
OK AND WESTERN AR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY SOLID THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON, WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO
THE EVENING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. SHORT-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT. IN ADDITION, SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
IS KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE LOW CLOUD BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE
OUACHITAS AS IT IS TODAY. WITH A LACK OF LOW CLOUD, LIGHT WINDS
AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS/MOISTURE LIFTING UP INTO THE AREA, THIS WILL
SET THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOG EVENT LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING FROM I-44 SOUTHWARD. USED TEMPO IFR
CIG/VSBY AT MOST SITES TOWARD DAYBREAK TUESDAY WITH MOS GUIDANCE
NOT SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. BOTH STATISTICAL AND SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE
HIT THE FOG HARD AT FSM, SO USED A PREVAILING LIFR MENTION THERE.
IN ADDITION, A PERIOD OF LLWS CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING
WHERE WINDS LESSEN AT THE SURFACE BUT REMAIN STRONG OFF THE DECK
AHEAD OF TROUGH.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 49 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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