908
FXUS64 KTSA 060246
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
846 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 843 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL CONTINUES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS,
WARM TEMPERATURES, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES LIKELY
BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH MUCH WEAKER THAN
WAS SEEN EARLIER. A FEW AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WHERE
MOISTURE WILL POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT, INITIALLY ALONG THE I-44
CORRIDOR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE PATCHY, SPREADING
SOUTH AND EAST TOWARDS DAWN. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WESTERLY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MOVING IN. LOWS WILL BE COOLEST
IN NORTHEAST OK, MAINLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, WITH MID TO
UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A WEAK AND DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AT THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD. AFTER A BREEZY
START TO THE EVENING TONIGHT, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHARPLY DECREASE
AS THE WEAK FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES THROUGH, TURNING WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE. THE LIGHTER WINDS SHOULD
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT FIRE SPREAD RATES AND LESSEN THE OVERALL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. OVERALL, THE FRONT
WILL BRING IN SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, BUT OTHERWISE WILL LIKELY
GO MOSTLY UNNOTICED.
MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
QUICKLY RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. MAJORITY OF THE RAIN FROM LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER BAJA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND QUICKLY TRACK TOWARD THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. MODELS SHOW A HUGE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE
LIFTING NORTHWARD LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PROVIDING AMPLE MOISTURE FOR THE APPROACHING TROUGH. PWAT VALUES
WILL RISE WELL OVER AN INCH FOR MUCH, IF NOT ALL, OF THE AREA BY
MID-MORNING THURSDAY. PER CLIMATOLOGY, PWATS WILL BE BETWEEN THE
97-99TH PERCENTILE (1-1.25 INCHES). A FEW DETERMINISTIC MODELS
SHOW PWATS EVEN APPROACHING 1.5 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS THURSDAY
MORNING, WHICH WOULD BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. THE ECMWF EFI FOR QPF HAS VALUES BETWEEN 0.5-0.7 FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR AND A SHIFT OF TAILS
JUST > 0, WHICH SIGNALS THE POSSIBILITY OF A FAIRLY UNUSUAL RAIN
EVENT, BUT LESS THAN AN EXTREME EVENT.
LATEST FORECAST MODELS AND ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INCREASE QPF
VALUES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS MAY BE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE
DEEPER MOISTURE BEING PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AS WELL AS
INSTABILITY BEING PULLED FARTHER NORTH HELPING TO PRODUCE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. ALTHOUGH STILL NOT EXPECTING STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY CROSS NORTH OF THE
I-40 CORRIDOR. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WHERE THE MAIN QPF AXIS
WILL SETUP, WAFFLING THE AXIS NORTH AND SOUTH OF I-44 WITH EACH
RUN. CONSENSUS FROM MEDIUM-RANGE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THERE
COULD BE MULTIPLE TRAINING OR SWATHS OF HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN,
WITH LOCATIONS OF WHERE THESE SWATHS SETUP STILL UNKNOWN. AS FAR
AS THE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, CURRENT
THINKING REMAINS GENERALLY THE SAME AS 24 HOURS AGO, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS SEEING BETWEEN HALF AN INCH AND ONE INCH OF RAIN. HIGHER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1-3 INCHES SEEMS PLAUSIBLE WITH TRAINING
SHOWERS/STORMS AND/OR UNDERNEATH HEAVIER PRECIPITATION BANDS.
APPROPRIATELY, THE WPC HAS MOST OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR
IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
RAINFALL SHOULD BE ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OVER THE
MIDWEST REGION AND THE MAIN, PARENT TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA INTO THE DAYTIME FRIDAY, DEPENDING ON THE POSITION AND SPEED
OF THE APPROACHING MAIN, PARENT TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS MUCH SLOWER AND HAS THE TROUGH DIPPING FARTHER SOUTH
THAN WHAT THE GFS SUGGESTS. THIS ECMWF SOLUTION WOULD SUGGEST
RAIN WOULD LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH POSSIBLY SOME WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION ON THE DEPARTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING/NIGHT. A QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH PROGRESSION WOULD
SUGGEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT STAY DRY. WILL MAINTAIN THE NBM
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME, WHICH FAVORS MORE OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION
AND KEEPS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF PRECIPITATION FOR FAR EASTERN
OK AND WESTERN AR THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY FRIDAY.
DESPITE THE LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ON FRIDAY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY SOLID THAT A COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING OR AFTERNOON, WITH A
SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR SATURDAY EVENING, WHICH WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT MONDAY AND A WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH
SOME AREAS MAY NEVER TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THEN, AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. INITIALLY NEAR 7-10Z THIS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR, ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
DAWN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE
NEAR KFSM. LINGERING SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK TONIGHT, WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST, AND THEN BREEZY NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 68 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 70 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 71 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 68 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 70 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 49 68 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 68 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 69 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 71 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
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