151
FXUS64 KTSA 060458
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1058 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1047 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT, INITIALLY NEAR
THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR AND THEN SPREADING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME.
THE FOG WILL BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY, LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AFTER A COOLER NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW THE NBM VALUES (CLOSER TO ALL AVAILABLE MOS GUIDANCE),
ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY DESPITE
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOME
PLACES RECEIVING AROUND AN INCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL.
MOST OF THE RAIN WILL END BY EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE POSSIBLY HELPING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES UP NEAR
70 AGAIN IN SOME PLACES.
COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
BUT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY CLIP PARTS OF THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING BUT MOST ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN BOTH NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CST MON JAN 5 2026
AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THOUGH
SOME AREAS MAY NEVER TOTALLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THEN, AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT. INITIALLY NEAR 7-10Z THIS WILL
OCCUR ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR, ADVANCING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
DAWN AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THE BEST CHANCE OF FOG WILL BE
NEAR KFSM. LINGERING SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME WEAK TONIGHT, WITH
SOME AREAS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE
FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WEST, AND THEN BREEZY NORTHWEST AFTER
SUNRISE. SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH DURING THE
DAY TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 48 71 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 46 71 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 37 69 29 67 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 46 71 31 69 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 49 69 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 46 69 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 44 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
F10 44 70 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 71 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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