264
FXUS64 KTSA 062301
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
501 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 459 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
- HIGH CONFIDENCE OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCES BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY WITH APPROACHING
STORM SYSTEM. LIMITED SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
A SUBTLE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY, BRINGING
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT, BUT
LOCALLY INCREASED FIRE SPREAD RATES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO PROLONGED DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES. GOING INTO TONIGHT, TRANSITORY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FILL IN BEHIND TODAYS WEAK FRONT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP WINDS LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT UNDER SCATTERED MID-HIGH CLOUD.
ALIGNING WITH PREVIOUS FORECASTS, WILL BE UTILIZING MOS GUIDANCE
TO LOWER OVERNIGHT TEMPS FOR THE TYPICALLY COLDER SPOTS. FOG
DEVELOPMENT CERTAINLY APPEARS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, BUT
CURRENTLY EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE LESS THAN THIS MORNING GIVEN THE
DRIER AIRMASS. CURRENTLY, FAR E OK INTO NW AR APPEAR TO HAVE THE
HIGHEST FOG POTENTIAL.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS QUICK TO REESTABLISH ITSELF WEDNESDAY MORNING
AS LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
LOW. WINDS WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT BREEZY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS, UP TO 15 TO 25 MPH, HELPING INCREASE FIRE SPREAD RATES
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK.
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT, MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY AS THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED-SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AS LIFT INCREASES AREAWIDE. PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE/ DAILY MAX FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR, PROMPTING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
OVERALL, THE LATEST GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED LOWER WITH RAIN AMOUNTS
IN OUR AREA, BUT AN AXIS OF 0.5 TO 1 INCH TOTALS REMAIN FORECAST
ACROSS NE OK AND FAR NW AR. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-44. ANY IMPACTS FROM HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD BE REDUCED GIVEN THE DRY SPELL WE HAVE BEEN IN AS OF LATE,
BUT LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN LOCATIONS
WHICH EXPERIENCE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED RAIN RATES. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE UPPER
TROUGH TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT, BEFORE ENDING WEST TO EAST AS
THE ENERGETIC SYSTEM ADVANCES PAST THE FA. DESPITE LIMITED
INSTABILITY, STRONG SHEAR MAY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
STRONGER/ MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS, A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST
AREA, BRINGING COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY. ANOTHER
UPPER LOW WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY NIGHT/ SATURDAY
MORNING, PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO LOCATIONS NEAR THE
KS AND MO BORDERS. THIS WILL THEN FORCE A STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, BRINGING COLDER TEMPERATURES
(BUT STILL NEAR AVERAGE) FOR THE WEEKEND. HEIGHTS GENERALLY
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE
REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE VARIES REGARDING
PRECIP POTENTIAL NEXT WEEK, SO WILL LET THE DRY NBM RIDE FOR NOW.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 PM CST TUE JAN 6 2026
SCATTERED MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS NEAR DAWN. ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY CLEAR AFTER SUNRISE.
LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL SHIFT TO BREEZY SOUTHERLY
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND LOWER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A STORM SYSTEM BUT WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 38 68 56 70 / 0 0 80 70
FSM 39 70 52 73 / 0 0 40 80
MLC 38 72 57 73 / 0 0 60 60
BVO 30 67 50 68 / 0 0 70 80
FYV 32 68 54 69 / 0 0 50 90
BYV 38 67 52 68 / 0 0 40 90
MKO 37 68 54 72 / 0 0 70 70
MIO 36 67 53 69 / 0 0 70 90
F10 38 70 56 72 / 0 0 70 60
HHW 40 70 55 72 / 0 0 30 50
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...06
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