607
FXUS64 KTSA 221706
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1106 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1103 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
- A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT WILL BRING LIFE THREATENING COLD TO THE AREA
BEGINNING FRIDAY NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
- TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK, SO SOCIETAL IMPACTS
WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
50S. CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AND LOWER THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC
AIRMASS WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
BEGINNING IN NORTHEAST OK. NORTH WINDS WILL THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD
SOUTH AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COLD AIR WILL
INITIALLY BE SLUGGISH IN ITS SOUTHWARD PUSH, WITH SUBFREEZING AIR
ROUGHLY MAKING IT TO A LINE FROM HENRYETTA UP THROUGH FAYETTEVILLE
BY DAYBREAK. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S NEAR THE KS
BORDER TO LOW 40S NEAR THE TX BORDER AT DAYBREAK.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1103 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
COLD AIR WILL INCREASING PUSH INTO THE AREA FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 412, WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH. FURTHER SOUTH, IT
IS UNCLEAR WHAT KIND OF PROGRESS THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE DURING THE
DAY. THE AIFS AND NAM MODELS ARE TYPICALLY MORE RELIABLE WITH COLD
AIR, AND THEY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES REMAINING JUST ABOVE FREEZING TO
THE SOUTH OF I-40 UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH TEMPERATURES THEN
GOING BELOW FREEZING AREAWIDE. WE ARE WITHIN THE WINDOW OF CAM
GUIDANCE AT THIS POINT. MUCH OF WHICH SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
IN SOUTHEAST OK FROM ROUGHLY NOON TO 3 PM. ANY STORM PREPARATIONS OR
TRAVEL SHOULD BE COMPLETED BY MIDDAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS, PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OK, WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING TO EITHER FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET,
DEPENDING ON THE EXACT COLD AIR PROGRESSION. ANY WET ROADS WILL
FREEZE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD NORTH TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW NORTH OF I-40, WITH MOSTLY
SLEET TO THE SOUTH. THERE WILL BE VARIATION IN THIS GENERALIZATION
IN BOTH TIME AND LOCATION. SOME FREEZING RAIN NEAR THE RED RIVER MAY
OCCUR, BUT IS GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 0.2 INCHES. BUT
AGAIN, THIS DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY THE COLD AIR SURGES SOUTH.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL THEN CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING AS MOIST ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INTERSECTS LIFT FROM AN
UPPER LEVEL JET. EXACT TOTALS REMAIN UNCERTAIN GIVEN QUESTIONS OF
HOW FAR NORTH SLEET OCCURS, EXACT HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AXIS, AND SO
ON. BUT TOTAL SNOW WILL BE MULTIPLE INCHES FOR MOST AREAS IN THE
NORTH, WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF SLEET IN THE SOUTH. THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, BUT THE MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE
LEANS TOWARDS EITHER A BREAK OR AT LEAST WEAKER PRECIPITATION RATES
FOR A TIME. GIVEN GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 MPH, SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW IS LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL HOVER NEAR 8-15 F
IN THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME, AND 15-25 F IN THE SOUTH.
THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN SWING THROUGH LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, REINVIGORATING PRECIPITATION RATES. WITH COOLING UPPER
LEVELS THIS WILL CAUSE SNOW RATIOS TO INCREASE IN THE NORTH, AND
NUDGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE TOWARDS SNOW WITH TIME IN SOUTHERN
AREAS. THERE IS STILL A DECENT SUBSET OF GUIDANCE THAT KEEPS THIS
SECOND SURGE WEAKER AND FURTHER SOUTH, WHICH WOULD LIMIT TOTALS. THE
MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE, HOWEVER, SHOWS THIS SECOND BAND AS ROBUST WITH
LOW DENSITY SNOW, MEANING IT WILL ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY. SNOW MAY
LINGER AS LONG AS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE TOTALLY SHUTTING
OFF.
THESE FACTORS TOGETHER POINT TO A WIDESPREAD STORM TOTAL OF 6-12
INCHES OF SNOW NORTH OF I-40. IF SOME OF THE HIGHER END GUIDANCE
WERE TO DEVELOP (LESS LIKELY) IT IS POSSIBLE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS
COULD BE AS HIGH AS 18-20 INCHES SOMEWHERE. CONVERSELY, THE LOW END
SCENARIO (ALSO LESS LIKELY) WOULD BE 6-8 INCHES IN THE NORTH.
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT IF NOT
OUTRIGHT IMPOSSIBLE FOR A TIME. SOUTH OF I-40, SLEET ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE PROLIFIC, POTENTIALLY UP TO 3-4 INCHES IN SPOTS. THESE TYPES
OF TOTALS WILL CRIPPLE MANY AREA ROADS. TYPICALLY SLEET TAKES A LONG
TIME TO MELT SO IMPACTS WILL LINGER FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. A COUPLE OF
INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL ON TOP OF THE SLEET NEAR THE END OF THE
STORM. ADDITIONALLY, SOME ICING NEAR THE RED RIVER COULD RESULT IN
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TO
COVER THESE EXPECTED STORM TOTALS.
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY EVENING IN THE NORTH,
SPREADING TO ALL AREAS SATURDAY. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL BELOW ZERO
FOR AT LEAST A TIME IN MOST LOCATIONS. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW ZERO MONDAY MORNING FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXTREME
COLD WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS DANGER.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 30S BUT LOWS REMAINING BELOW 20 EACH NIGHT.
THIS WILL REFREEZE AND COMPACT EXISTING SNOW AND SLEET, KEEPING ROAD
CONDITIONS TREACHEROUS INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. THERE IS A BIT OF A
SIGNAL IN THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR A WEAK SYSTEM NEAR NEXT FRIDAY,
BUT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR AFTER SUNDAY UNTIL AT
LEAST THEN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 507 AM CST THU JAN 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH PASSING HIGH
CLOUD AND LIGHT WIND. THE INITIAL SIGNS OF MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD
OF THE BIG WINTER STORM WILL SHOW UP AS AN INCREASE IN LOW-END VFR
CIGS COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH AT KMLC TONIGHT. ALSO, TOWARD THE
VERY END OF THE FORECAST JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING, THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES AT THE NE OK SITES, WITH NERLY WIND
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS POSSIBLE.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 28 8 11 / 0 20 100 100
FSM 33 39 17 20 / 0 20 100 100
MLC 35 39 14 18 / 0 50 100 100
BVO 21 24 4 10 / 0 20 90 100
FYV 26 32 9 15 / 0 20 100 100
BYV 25 27 8 12 / 0 10 90 100
MKO 32 33 12 15 / 0 30 100 100
MIO 22 23 5 10 / 0 10 90 100
F10 32 32 9 14 / 0 40 100 100
HHW 40 42 19 22 / 10 70 100 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON FRIDAY TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT TO NOON CST
MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30
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