435
FXUS64 KTSA 231140
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
540 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A POTENT ARCTIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AND
WILL BRING LIFE THREATENING COLD TO THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY
NIGHT, CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, BRINGING
CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.
- TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE
AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK, SO SOCIETAL IMPACTS
WILL LINGER FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM ACROSS THE COUNTRY SHOWS THE MUCH
ANTICIPATED ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL KS AS
OF THIS WRITING. THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST AR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. BEHIND THE BOUNDARY,
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL STEADILY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
CONTINUE TO FALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME FRIDAY. BECAUSE TEMPERATURES
WILL NOT FOLLOW THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE, THEY MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
FROM LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE, TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL BELOW
FREEZING NORTH OF I-40 BY OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SOUTH. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INITIALLY BRING IN
SOME VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE SURFACE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK. HI-RES MODELS INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING THROUGH
THE MORNING AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM, MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN OK. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE
QUITE LARGE ACROSS NORTHEAST OK THROUGH THE DAYTIME, GREATER THAN
25 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS. IF PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO REACH THE
GROUND, IT WILL BE LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
SOUTH OF I-40, AIR NEAR THE SURFACE WILL NOT BE QUITE AS DRY.
LIGHT RAIN MAY MIX WITH SOME SLEET DURING THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON FROM MCALESTER LATITUDE AND SOUTHWARD, WITH BEST
CHANCES CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON SHOULD STAY ABOVE FREEZING AS THE PRECIPITATION
FALLS, AND LIGHT RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BRING IN SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE PROBABLE INITIALLY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
LIGHTER SOUTH OF I-40. BUT REGARDLESS, THESE WINDS WILL MAKE
TEMPERATURES FEEL MUCH COLDER. DAYTIME HIGHS FRIDAY WILL OCCUR
BEFORE SUNRISE, WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 20S NORTH OF
I-40 BY LATE IN THE MORNING. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL STEADILY FALL
FROM THE TEENS TO THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND EVEN BELOW 0 DEGREES NEAR
THE OK/KS BORDER. NEEDLESS TO SAY, IT IS GOING TO BE COLD AND
FEEL COLDER!
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1108 PM CST THU JAN 22 2026
OVERALL, NO DRASTIC CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
LATEST SUITE OF FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE
TWO ROUNDS OF HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION BETWEEN FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONSENSUS IN MODEL DATA SHOW THE FIRST WAVE
WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
DESPITE BEING LESS THAN 24 HOURS FROM THE ONSET OF THE MODERATE TO
HEAVY WINTRY PRECIPITATION, THERE ARE STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES ON
HOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE INVERSION WILL BEHAVE, WHICH WILL
ULTIMATELY AFFECT PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNTS. SNOW SHOULD BE
THE PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE NORTH OF I-40. HOWEVER, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE HOVERING AROUND THE FREEZING LINE NEAR THE
700MB LAYER AS FAR NORTH AS TULSA AND FAYETTEVILLE OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD SUGGEST A MIXTURE OF
SLEET AND SNOW WILL FALL, AT LEAST INITIALLY, GENERALLY BETWEEN
I-40 AND HIGHWAY 412. SOUTH OF I-40, THERE IS A LOT MORE
UNCERTAINTY. LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION MAY ALREADY BE
ONGOING BY THE START OF THE LONG-TERM PERIOD AS STRONG MOISTURE
AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE DRAWN INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO START OFF AS LIQUID RAIN, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER, BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT FOR
A PRODUCTION OF SLEET TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING. ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING
AFTER SUNSET, A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL PREVAIL.
HOW MUCH FREEZING RAIN WILL FALL IS STILL DEBATABLE AT THIS TIME,
BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS UP TO A COUPLE OF
TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL MOSTLY BE ACROSS CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA
COUNTIES AND PERHAPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PITTSBURG, LATIMER, AND
LE FLORE COUNTIES.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION FROM THE FIRST WAVE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY AND WILL BEGIN TO EXIT TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SOMETIME LATE MORNING SATURDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH NOON SATURDAY VARY DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU
LOOK AT, AND AGAIN, WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED ALONG AND NORTH OF
I-40. SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES SEEMS REASONABLE,
LOCALLY HIGHER, FOR THIS FIRST ROUND OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION.
MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF I-40, SLEET ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES
IS NOT OUT OF QUESTION, BUT WILL HIGHLY DEPEND HOW MUCH FREEZING
RAIN IS ABLE TO MIX IN.
A LULL IN HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BOTH GLOBAL AND HI-RES MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW A CHANCE OF LIGHTER PRECIPITATION PERIODICALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH MAYBE ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS. IF DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ABLE TO INFILTRATE DURING
THIS LULL PERIOD, THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF FREEZING DRIZZLE,
EVEN NORTH OF I-40, BEFORE THE NEXT HEAVY ROUND ARRIVES. THIS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SECOND
ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE
MID TO LATE EVENING SATURDAY AS A BAJA LOW MOVES ONSHORE OVER
NORTHWEST MEXICO AND MERGES WITH THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE GREAT BASIN/DESSERT SOUTHWEST. THIS SECOND ROUND WILL PERSIST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
SUNDAY, PERHAPS LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AR BEFORE SHIFTING EAST. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
BETWEEN 4 AND 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH OF I-40 DURING THIS
PERIOD, WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4 INCHES OF A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
SOUTH.
TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF
I-40. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY HI-RES GUIDANCE, HAS BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING PERIODIC HIGH SNOWFALL RATES (1 TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR) FROM INTENSE SNOW BANDS. LOCALIZED SNOW AMOUNTS 15 TO 20
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN A FEW LOCATIONS, ESPECIALLY IF ANY
CONVECTIVE SNOW BANDS SETUP. THESE AMOUNTS DO INCLUDE SLEET TOO,
BUT SLEET ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD STAY BELOW AN INCH AT THIS TIME.
SOUTH OF I-40, SLEET AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO OVERPOWER ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS, WITH UP TO 4 INCHES OF SLEET PILING UP FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS. THE BEST CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTH OF I-40 WILL ACTUALLY
OCCUR SUNDAY MORNING, ONCE THE 850MB FRONT IS ABLE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK. THIS IS WHERE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW MAY FALL
ON TOP OF ANY ICE AND SLEET THAT HAS FALLEN. AS FOR ICE AMOUNTS,
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR FREEZING RAIN
WILL OCCUR IN CHOCTAW AND PUSHMATAHA COUNTIES, WHERE ANYWHERE FROM
A GLAZE TO A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
FALLING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS COULD RESULT
IN LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES FOR THIS AREA. THIS EVENT WILL HAVE
VERY HIGH IMPACTS FOR EVERYONE, REGARDLESS HOW MUCH SNOW, SLEET,
OR ICE FALLS. AND THEY WILL FALL. TRAVEL WILL BE EXTREMELY
DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION AND BEFORE THINGS START TO MELT. STAY HOME THIS
WEEKEND, IF POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES AND ESPECIALLY WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME
DANGEROUS NORTH OF I-40 BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING SOUTH OF
I-40 BY SATURDAY MORNING. ACTUAL HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS. MEANWHILE, OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
FALL TO THE SINGLE DIGITS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
AREA AND FOR ALL OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AFTER THE STORM
SYSTEM DEPARTS, WINDS CALM DOWN, AND SKIES BEGIN TO CLEAR. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL OCCUR AT THE SAME TIME WHEN THERE IS
POTENTIALLY SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW/SLEET ON THE GROUND. ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS, SAVE
NEAR THE RED RIVER, SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILLS BELOW ZERO OR IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SATURDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. PLEASE REMEMBER TO PROTECT VULNERABLE PEOPLE, PETS, PLANTS,
AND PIPES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. USE SPACE HEATERS AND
GENERATORS PROPERLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO RISE AFTER MONDAY. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO FINALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING (BRIEFLY) TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS LIKELY WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO MELT
ALL OF THE SNOW AND SLEET ON THE GROUND AND ANY MELTING THAT DOES
OCCUR WILL LIKELY REFREEZE BOTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WHEN TEMPERATURES FALL BACK BELOW FREEZING. ANY EXISTING SNOW AND
SLEET ON THE GROUND WILL COMPACT, KEEPING ROAD CONDITIONS LESS
THAN IDEAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. GOOD NEWS IS
THAT NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BEYOND SUNDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WIDESPREAD SNOW AND
SLEET OVERSPREAD ALL SITES. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER
TO IFR OR LOWER BY LATE TONIGHT AS PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE.
MAINLY SNOW IS EXPECTED AT THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES, WITH A SNOW/SLEET MIX AT KMLC AND KFSM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 26 8 11 5 / 30 100 90 100
FSM 34 17 20 12 / 20 100 100 100
MLC 37 15 18 6 / 50 100 100 100
BVO 21 4 10 0 / 30 100 90 90
FYV 27 9 15 5 / 10 100 100 100
BYV 24 8 13 5 / 10 100 100 100
MKO 30 13 16 6 / 30 100 100 100
MIO 22 6 10 4 / 10 100 90 100
F10 31 10 14 5 / 40 100 100 100
HHW 41 20 22 11 / 70 100 100 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05
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