022
FXUS64 KTSA 231730
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1129 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
- A VERY HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY,
BRINGING CLIMATOLOGICALLY EXTREME SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS TO THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.
- LIFE THREATENING COLD WILL ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT, CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
- TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DIFFICULT TO NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLOW TO MODERATE NEXT WEEK, SO SOCIETAL
IMPACTS WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
AN ARCTIC FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. VERY COLD AND
DRY AIR IS POURING IN FROM THE NORTH. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
25-35 MPH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING FOR NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 WILL GRADUALLY COOL TO FREEZING BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION WILL SLOWLY SPREAD NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE INITIALLY DRY LOWER
LEVELS WILL LIMIT PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND BY LATE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST OK, SPREADING TO THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING.
BY LATE EVENING, SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE TEENS NORTH OF
I-40, AND 25-30 F SOUTH OF THERE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
MOSTLY SNOW (SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN) FOR NORTHERN AREAS. THE FORECAST
IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH A GRADUAL
TRANSITION FROM MOSTLY SNOW TO MOSTLY SLEET HEADING SOUTH. SOME CAM
GUIDANCE SHOWS MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MCALESTER TO FORT SMITH CORRIDOR,
AND IF THIS OCCURRED IT COULD SNOW UPWARDS OF 8-12 INCHES TONIGHT.
BUT THERE IS OTHER GUIDANCE SHOWING MOSTLY SLEET, SO IN THIS CASE
PERHAPS A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SLEET WOULD FALL INSTEAD. SOME OF
THESE DIFFERENCES CAN BE TIED TO MODEL MICROPHYSICS DIFFERENCES
RATHER THAN ACTUAL METEOROLOGICAL UNCERTAINTY. AS THE EXACT CORRIDOR
OF TRANSITION WILL LIKELY BE VARIABLE, TRENDED THE FORECAST TO MORE
OF A BLEND OF SLEET AND SNOW FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST OK AS WELL AS WEST-CENTRAL AR. ANY FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO FAR SOUTHEAST OK, AND EVEN THERE SLEET WILL DOMINATE. A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER MAY OCCUR IN SOUTHEAST OK WHERE THERE ARE
HINTS OF MINIMAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY. MODELS HAVE COMMONLY
UNDERESTIMATED THIS THREAT IN SIMILAR PATTERNS IN THE PAST. IN TERMS
OF INTENSITY, SNOWFALL RATES IN THE HEAVIER BANDS MAY REACH AS HIGH
AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR, CREATING EXTREMELY TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.
THERE IS A CLEAR TREND IN 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE FOR LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION TONIGHT NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR, WITH THE HEAVIEST
AXIS OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTED SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY TAMP DOWN ON PRECIP TOTALS TO REFLECT THIS, BUT
IT DOES NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL MESSAGING OF HIGH IMPACT WINTER
WEATHER THAT WILL OCCUR. FUTURE SHIFTS MAY CONTINUE WITH FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE. FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
AREAS, TOTAL SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM 3 TO AS
MUCH AS 12 INCHES. SLEET TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 INCHES, WITH
CENTRAL OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR SEEING A MIXTURE OF BOTH TYPES AS
NOTED EARLIER. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOSTLY BE 0.15
INCHES OR LESS AND RIGHT NEAR THE RED RIVER. TEMPERATURES BY
SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH, AND
TEENS IN THE SOUTH. WIND CHILLS SATURDAY MORNING MAY REACH -5 TO -15
F NORTH OF I-40, AND +9 TO -5 F SOUTH OF THERE.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1129 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. MOST GUIDANCE
IS NOW IN AGREEMENT ON A BREAK FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY LATE MORNING INTO MID AFTERNOON. SOUTHEAST OK WOULD
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF LIGHT SLEET PERSISTING THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BITTERLY COLD, GENERALLY PRETTY CLOSE TO 10
F IN THE NORTH, AND 15-20 F IN THE SOUTH. IT WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH
VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.
BY MID AFTERNOON SATURDAY THE NEXT PHASE OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL
COMMENCE. MODEL TRENDS THIS MORNING HAVE SHIFTED THE 2ND
PRECIPITATION BAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY DRIER. THEY HAVE
ALSO TRENDED TOWARDS PULLING SLEET SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTH AT ONSET,
PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM OKMULGEE TO FAYETTEVILLE. BUT
EVEN IF THIS DOES OCCUR, SLEET WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW FOR ALL AREAS
BY SUNDAY MORNING. WITH COOLING UPPER LEVELS THE SNOW RATIOS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME EXCELLENT, PERHAPS 15-1 OR BETTER NEAR THE END OF
THE STORM. THIS SECOND PHASE WILL DROP ANOTHER 3 TO 12 INCHES OF
SNOW IN THE NORTH AND UP TO 1-3 INCHES OF SLEET IN THE SOUTH (MAY
END UP BEING MORE SNOW THAN SLEET). OVERALL STORM TOTALS WILL MOSTLY
BE BETWEEN 6 AND 16 INCHES OF SNOW (CENTRAL AND NORTH) WITH 2-4
INCHES OF SLEET IN THE SOUTH, WITH BLENDING EXPECTED IN THE MIDDLE.
AN ISOLATED STORM TOTAL OF UP TO 20 INCHES IS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT
EXPECTED. SNOW WILL END BY SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON.
SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS GOING NEARLY CALM.
CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS AND A DEEP SNOWPACK, LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO ZERO OR BELOW FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. SOME TYPICALLY
COLD AREAS MAY FALL BELOW -10 F. ANY SLIGHT BREEZES WILL MAKE IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER. TEMPERATURES WILL PROBABLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S MONDAY AND PERHAPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR A FEW HOURS TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE AN ADDITIONAL PUSH OF COLD AIR ARRIVES.
THIS WILL THEN KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING WITH LOWS IN
THE TEENS INTO AT LEAST LATE WEEK. UNFORTUNATELY THIS IMPLIES THAT
VERY LITTLE OF WHAT FALLS WILL MELT UNTIL AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK,
WITH ROAD CONDITIONS REMAINING EXTREMELY POOR UNTIL AT LEAST THEN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST FRI JAN 23 2026
ONGOING VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE
OVERNIGHT AREA WIDE WITH EXPANDING SNOW AND SLEET IMPACTING ALL
TERMINALS. AREAS OF IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM LATE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AN IMPROVING FLIGHT LEVEL
TREND IS LIKELY FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING MID TO LATE SAT
MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 9 11 7 16 / 100 90 100 80
FSM 17 20 13 20 / 100 100 100 80
MLC 16 18 9 18 / 100 100 100 80
BVO 5 10 5 14 / 100 90 100 60
FYV 9 16 7 17 / 100 100 100 80
BYV 8 11 8 15 / 100 100 100 80
MKO 13 16 8 16 / 100 100 100 80
MIO 8 10 6 14 / 100 90 100 80
F10 11 14 7 16 / 100 100 100 80
HHW 20 20 13 19 / 100 100 100 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST MONDAY
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...07
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