462
FXUS64 KTSA 242341
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 537 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL BECOME NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LIFE THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANY
PROLONGED EXPOSURE. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS SLOW TO IMPROVE AS COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE FINAL SNOW AND SLEET
FOOTPRINT.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
PRECIP HAS EXPANDED FROM W TX THROUGH CENTRAL OK EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN A BROAD FETCH OF STRENGTHENING UPGLIDE. THIS
PRECIP WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ACROSS
E OK AND NW AR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL
FURTHER SOLIDLY THIS EVENING TO OUR WEST AS THE PRIMARY WAVE AXIS
BEGINS TO TRACK EAST. PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AREA WIDE FROM LATE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITATION TYPE REMAINS A CHALLENGE ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 40. SUBSTANTIAL WARM NOSE SAMPLED IN 12Z RAOBS
ACROSS N TX AND GUIDANCE FAVORS THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
ADVECTING THIS WARMER LAYER NORTHWARD INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ALL WHILE THE NEAR SFC LAYER REMAINS VERY COLD. EXPECTATION
REMAINS PREDOMINATE SLEET THROUGH A CORRIDOR ACROSS SE OK THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT WITH SNOW MOST LIKELY FROM INTERSTATE 40 NORTHWARD.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET MIX REMAINS THE FAVORED TYPED ACROSS
EXTREME SE OK WHERE LOCALIZED ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ALREADY
PRODUCED SOME IMPACTS TO THE POWER GRID. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW
IS LIKELY BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS THE ENTIRE COLUMN COOLS WITH
THE WAVE PASSAGE.
HEAVY SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN FORECAST ESPECIALLY
FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING WITH PEAK
INTENSITIES LIKELY IN THE MIDNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HEAVIEST SNOWS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AND EXTENDING ACROSS ALL NE
OK INTO NW AR WITH LOCALIZED 12 PLUS INCH TOTALS LIKELY ESPECIALLY
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NW AR. THE SNOW SLEET TRANSITION ZONE
WILL REDUCE OVERALL TOTALS WHERE SLEET IS PREDOMINANT HOWEVER
TREACHEROUS TRAVEL WILL REMAIN A HAZARD. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING
REMAINS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT WITH A NOTE THAT ANY MORE PROLONGED
ICING WOULD QUICKLY BECOME AN ISSUE IF FREEZING RAIN DOMINATES THE
PRECIP TYPE ACROSS FAR SE OK.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS WESTERN AR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
WIDESPREAD SLEET AND SNOW FOOTPRINT WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE
TEMPERATUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WHICH COULD BE LIFE
THREATENING WITH ANY PROLONGED EXPOSURE. A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK BUT LIKELY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ALL SNOW IS FAVORED
FOR THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR TERMINALS, WITH MLC AND FSM SEEING A
SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING COMPLETELY TO SNOW LATE IN
THE EVENT. FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW EVEN IN NE OK/FAR NW AR, BUT
UNLESS THE SIGNAL BECOMES STRONGER FOR A LONGER DURATION, WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, INSTEAD HANDLING IT WITH AMENDMENTS ACCORDING
TO TRENDS. LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
EITHER MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 6 15 0 20 / 100 80 10 0
FSM 12 19 3 23 / 100 80 10 0
MLC 9 16 -2 23 / 100 80 10 0
BVO 4 14 -3 19 / 100 70 0 0
FYV 7 15 -3 20 / 100 90 10 0
BYV 5 14 -3 18 / 100 90 10 0
MKO 7 16 -2 19 / 100 80 10 0
MIO 6 13 -4 16 / 100 80 10 0
F10 5 16 -2 21 / 100 80 10 0
HHW 12 18 5 24 / 100 60 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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