286
FXUS64 KTSA 250206
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
806 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 805 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TRAVEL WILL BECOME NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES
DURING THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.
- LIFE THREATENING COLD TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANY
PROLONGED EXPOSURE. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS SLOW TO IMPROVE AS COLD TEMPERATURES PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY WEEK. A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS BY MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE FINAL SNOW AND SLEET
FOOTPRINT.
SHORT TERM
(THE REST OF TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 805 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
ENTERING TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE GLM SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUD FLASHES IN
THE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, WHICH WILL LATER EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS ITS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IN THE MEANTIME, CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AT 700 HPA IS SUPPORTING
FRONTOGENESIS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED. COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING. MEANWHILE, FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
THESE FACTORS SHOULD SUPPORT A CONSOLIDATION OF THE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
INTO A BROAD PRECIPITATION SHIELD WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF CONVECTION.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP
THROUGH THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. SNOW WILL BE FAVORED ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR,
WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET DOWN TO JUST SOUTH OF THE I-44
CORRIDOR, AND SLEET TO THE SOUTH OF THERE. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET WILL
BE HIGHLY VARIABLE BUT SIGNIFICANT. THE HARDEST HIT AREAS COULD SEE
UP TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW OR 2 INCHES OF SLEET, THOUGH MOST WILL SEE
SOMEWHAT LOWER TOTALS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
SNOW TAPERS OFF ACROSS WESTERN AR BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE
WIDESPREAD SLEET AND SNOW FOOTPRINT WILL LARGELY INFLUENCE
TEMPERATUES THROUGH AT LEAST MID NEXT WEEK. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT BOTH OFFER POTENTIAL FOR EXTREMELY COLD OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPS AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILL VALUES WHICH COULD BE LIFE
THREATENING WITH ANY PROLONGED EXPOSURE. A SLOW MODERATION IN
TEMPERATURES IS FORECAST MID TO LATE WEEK BUT LIKELY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ALL SNOW IS FAVORED
FOR THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR TERMINALS, WITH MLC AND FSM SEEING A
SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING COMPLETELY TO SNOW LATE IN
THE EVENT. FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW EVEN IN NE OK/FAR NW AR, BUT
UNLESS THE SIGNAL BECOMES STRONGER FOR A LONGER DURATION, WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, INSTEAD HANDLING IT WITH AMENDMENTS ACCORDING
TO TRENDS. LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
EITHER MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 6 15 0 20 / 100 80 10 0
FSM 12 19 3 23 / 100 80 10 0
MLC 9 16 -2 23 / 100 80 10 0
BVO 4 14 -3 19 / 100 70 0 0
FYV 7 15 -3 20 / 100 90 10 0
BYV 5 14 -3 18 / 100 90 10 0
MKO 7 16 -2 19 / 100 80 10 0
MIO 6 13 -4 16 / 100 80 10 0
F10 5 16 -2 21 / 100 80 10 0
HHW 12 18 5 24 / 100 60 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22
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