828
FXUS64 KTSA 250416
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1016 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
- SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
TRAVEL WILL BECOME NEAR IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE MOST
INTENSE PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.
- LIFE THREATENING COLD PERSISTS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. LOWS MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW ZERO.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEEK, THOUGH SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION
IS EXPECTED.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A ROBUST UPPER LEVEL LOW
ENTERING TEXAS THIS EVENING. THE GLM SHOWS NUMEROUS CLOUD FLASHES IN
THE CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW, WHICH IS EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS ITS ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
IN THE MEANTIME, CONFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AT 700 HPA IS SUPPORTING
FRONTOGENESIS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WIDESPREAD UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND INCREASE POTENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION IS ALSO
NOTED. COOLING CLOUD TOPS AND EXPANDING PRECIPITATION WITHIN THE
FRONTOGENETICAL ZONE ARE OCCURRING. MEANWHILE, FAIRLY DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW.
A MID LEVEL WARM NOSE WAS EVIDENT ON THE OUN SOUNDING AT 00Z, WITH
THE 800-700 HPA LAYER AT 0 TO +2 C. AREAS OF SLEET HAVE AND WILL
CONTINUE TO OCCUR AS FAR NORTH AS A LINE FROM OKMULGEE THROUGH
BENTONVILLE, THOUGH THIS LINE SHOULD BEGIN DRIFTING SOUTH WITH
TIME. WITHIN THE SLEET ZONE, THE PHASE MAY CHANGE BACK AND FORTH
DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION INTENSITY.
CAM GUIDANCE HAD MOSTLY TRENDED DOWN FOR TONIGHT COMPARED TO WHAT
HAD BEEN ADVERTISED. HOWEVER, THE OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS
DISCUSSED ABOVE SUGGESTS THAT TONIGHT WILL INDEED PRODUCE
NOTEWORTHY SNOW AND SLEET. IN FACT, RECENT GUIDANCE SHOWS ROBUST
HEAVY SNOW MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHEAST OK AND SLEET FOR
SOUTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST AR. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. AREAS OF BANDED SNOW OR SLEET WILL ALLOW CERTAIN CORRIDORS
TO SEE RELATIVELY HEAVIER TOTALS WITH TIME.
DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
STREAMING IN ALOFT AND ALL AREAS WILL SWITCH TO SNOW FROM WEST TO
EAST, EVEN IF ONLY BRIEFLY WHEN PRECIPITATION IS WRAPPING UP.
SNOW RATIOS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THIS COLDER AIR
WORKS ITS WAY IN, FINALLY ENDING BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. IN TERMS OF OUR UPDATED SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS, ALL OF
THE FACTORS MENTIONED SUGGEST A FAIRLY WIDE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES. FOR AREAS THAT SEE SLEET, TOTALS COULD LOCALLY BE
AS HIGH AS 2-3 INCHES. FOR SNOW DOMINANT AREAS, TOTALS COULD BE
AS LOW AS 2-4 INCHES IN SPOTS AND AS HIGH AS 10 INCHES IN OTHERS.
ON AVERAGE, HOWEVER, AN ADDITIONAL 4-8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE SNOW ZONE. THEN, IN BETWEEN THE SNOW AND SLEET
DOMINANT AREAS, A MIXTURE OF BOTH WILL OCCUR. ROADS ARE ALREADY A
MESS, THIS ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL EXACERBATE EXISTING ISSUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY COLD SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS
AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
MONDAY MORNING LOOKS QUITE COLD WITH PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES,
LIGHT WINDS, AND DEEP SNOW COVER. LOWS WILL FALL TO NEAR OR BELOW
ZERO ACROSS THE AREA. MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL ONLY WARM INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S.
FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD, TEMPERATURES WILL ATTEMPT TO MODERATE,
BUT WITH MOSTLY FLAT GRADIENTS AND DEEP SNOW COVER, ANY MODERATION
WILL BE SLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
(WARMEST SOUTH) FOR THIS PERIOD, BUT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
REMAINING MOSTLY IN THE TEENS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SNOW AND SLEET
MOSTLY IN PLACE, AND ROADS WILL LIKELY REMAIN TRICKY IN MANY
AREAS. ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES FRIDAY, PLUNGING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW FREEZING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW AS THE COLD AIR ARRIVES, BUT FOR
NOW ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SAYS WE ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2026
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING, CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING
BEFORE FINALLY ENDING LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD. ALL SNOW IS FAVORED
FOR THE NE OK AND FAR NW AR TERMINALS, WITH MLC AND FSM SEEING A
SNOW AND SLEET MIX BEFORE TRANSITIONING COMPLETELY TO SNOW LATE IN
THE EVENT. FOR THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO OF THE TAF, A BRIEF PERIOD OF
LIGHT SLEET MAY MIX IN WITH THE SNOW EVEN IN NE OK/FAR NW AR, BUT
UNLESS THE SIGNAL BECOMES STRONGER FOR A LONGER DURATION, WILL NOT
INCLUDE IN THE TAF, INSTEAD HANDLING IT WITH AMENDMENTS ACCORDING
TO TRENDS. LARGELY IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR THE
FIRST 18 OR SO HOURS OF THE PERIOD, WITH A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO
EITHER MVFR OR EVEN VFR BY THE END OF THE TAF. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AT ALL
SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 11 7 17 -2 / 90 100 70 10
FSM 19 12 19 1 / 100 100 70 10
MLC 17 9 17 0 / 100 100 50 10
BVO 9 4 15 -5 / 80 100 70 10
FYV 13 7 16 -4 / 90 100 80 10
BYV 11 7 14 -4 / 80 100 80 10
MKO 15 8 16 -3 / 90 100 70 10
MIO 11 6 15 -7 / 80 100 80 10
F10 12 7 16 -2 / 100 100 50 10
HHW 27 12 19 5 / 100 100 60 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST SUNDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
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