666
FXUS64 KTSA 270445
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1045 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
- DANGEROUS COLD PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ANY
PROLONGED EXPOSURE.
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY IMAPCT THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY
AND PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TONIGHT. MORE EXTENSIVE
FREEZING FOG TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE AS COLD TEMPERATURES
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WEEK, THOUGH SOME TEMPERATURE MODERATION
IS EXPECTED. SLEET AND SNOW PACK WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURE TRENDS
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
- PATTERN BY LATE WEEK FAVORS REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH ONLY
LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT, WITH
JUST HOW COLD GOVERNED BY WIND TRENDS. FOR EXAMPLE, AT THE TIME
OF THE WRITING OF THIS SENTENCE, THE MESONET SITE AT WEBBERS FALLS
HAD CALM WINDS AND A TEMPERATURE OF 4 DEGREES, WHILE SURROUNDING
SITES ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WITH 5 TO 10 MPH OF
WIND SPEED. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND THE EXISTING SNOW/SLEET PACK,
EXPECT SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISPARITIES SUCH AS THIS TO CONTINUE
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. EVEN IN LOCATIONS THAT SEE COMPARATIVELY
WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE WIND THAT IS REPONSIBLE FOR THAT WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO WIND CHILLS THAT AT TIMES ARE WELL BELOW ZERO. AS
A RESULT, THE EXISTING EXTREME COLD WARNING WILL BE LEFT ALONE FOR
NOW. PATCHY FREEZING FOG WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE LOWER ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WHERE
WINDS ARE MORE LIKELY TO GO CALM. ANY FREEZING FOG COULD
EXACERBATE ALREADY SLICK ROADWAYS RESULTING FROM REFREEZING OF THE
SLEET/SNOW THAT MELTED DURING THE DAY TODAY.
SPEAKING OF MELTING, TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ABOVE FREEZING IN
MOST OF THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO ADDITIONAL EROSION OF THE
SLEET AND SNOW PACK THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD
COVER AND A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIMIT THE OVERALL WARMUP ACROSS
PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BUT PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS MAY APPROACH 40
DEGREES FOR A HIGH.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
A MORE EXTENSIVE ROUND OF FREEZING FOG LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY REMAINS SUPPORTED BY A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DATA,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF I-40 NEARER THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS AND SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. A FREEZING FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED ON LATER SHIFTS IF TRENDS REMAIN SIMILAR
TO WHAT THEY ARE CURRENTLY.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH THE
STRONGER REINFORCING FRONT REMAINS ON TRACK FOR FRIDAY. A STRONG
AND FAIRLY FAST MOVING DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE THURSDAY
FRONT WILL BRING A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW TO AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 75 AND ALONG/SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 412 THURSDAY EVENING. LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED FROM THIS. BEHIND THE
REINFORCING FRONT ON FRIDAY, ANOTHER ROUND OF DANGEROUS,
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING COLD IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL COLD WEATHER ADVISORY/WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.
WARMER CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY, WITH NOTICEABLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST MON JAN 26 2026
WINDS HAVE GONE CALM AT KFSM WHERE CAM GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR DAYBREAK. ADDED IFR RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN
11-14Z WITH PROSPECTS OF PATCHY FOG TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN DURING THE AFTERNOON TUESDAY. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH TONIGHT AT REMAINING LOCATIONS THEN A WEAK FRONT
SHIFTS WINDS TO N-NW STARTING AT 18Z. PRE- AND POST-FRONTAL SPEEDS
WILL REMAIN BELOW 10KT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 10 34 12 39 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 4 39 17 41 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 8 39 15 43 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 7 34 7 38 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 10 37 13 42 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 13 36 13 41 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 7 35 14 39 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 10 33 9 36 / 0 0 0 0
F10 8 36 13 39 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 10 38 20 41 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR OKZ049-053>076.
AR...EXTREME COLD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ARZ001-002-010-
011-019-020-029.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...24
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