631
FXUS64 KTSA 271852
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1252 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1252 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- REINFORCING COLD FRONT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LATE
IN THE WEEK.
- VERY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
PLEASANT, ALBEIT CHILLY, WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. A VERY WEAK AND
SUBTLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WILL HAVE NO IMPACTS TO THE AREA
OTHER THAN A MINOR WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH FOR AREAS NORTH OF
I-40. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO NEAR CALM THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE LIGHT WINDS AND LINGERING SNOW/SLEET ON
THE GROUND WILL PROMOTE PATCHY TO AREAS OF FREEZING FOG, LOCALLY
DENSE, TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. THE DENSEST FOG LOOKS TO STAY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD NORTHWARD SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT. SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY FALL AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING BY OR JUST AFTER SUNSET.
FREEZING FOG AND RESIDUAL SNOW/SLEET/ICE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
TRAVEL AND ROAD CONDITIONS LESS THAN IDEAL, WITH BLACK ICE ALSO
REMAINING A THREAT. CONTINUE TO TAKE IT SLOW ON THE ROAD AND LEAVE
PLENTY OF ROOM BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES AROUND YOU.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
WITH VERY LITTLE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW, FREEZING FOG THAT DEVELOPS
TONIGHT MAY LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY BEFORE
LIFTING AND ERODING. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL RETURN BY MIDDAY, WHICH SHOULD HELP CLEAR ANY REMAINING FOG
IN THE AREA. MOSTLY PLEASANT AND MILDER, ALTHOUGH STILL
UNSEASONABLY COLD, WEATHER IS IN STORE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH DAYTIME HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE LOW-MID 20S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
THURSDAY STARTS OFF CHILLY WITH ADDITIONAL FREEZING FOG IN PLACES
IN THE MORNING. A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT OFF THE
ROCKIES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL
HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS STILL SHOW A HINT OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM. WILL
MAINTAIN LOW POPS (20% OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW) FOR AREAS OF FAR
NORTHEAST OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MODELS SHOW A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW DIGGING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY
AND EVENTUALLY POSITIONING ITSELF OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE WILL BRING A SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD
AIR INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS BRING ADDITIONAL LOW
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS, WITH WIND CHILL VALUES
REACHING THE SINGLE DIGITS. THE SECONDARY PUSH OF COLD AIR DURING
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL FURTHER, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, AND WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR
BELOW ZERO, FOR MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COLD DURING THE
DAYTIME SATURDAY AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND AND WILL STEADILY WARM-UP SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON
FOR ALL SITES. MID AND HIGH CLOUD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE EXITING THIS EVENING. OVERNIGHT,
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AREAWIDE, WITH KMLC AND
KFSM HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VSBYS (LIFR)
AND SLICK SPOTS, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08-15Z. PROBABILITIES FOR
DENSE FREEZING FOG ARE LESS ACROSS NW AR SITES, TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED FOR FUTURE FORECASTS. CONDITIONS MAY BE SLOW TO IMPROVE
WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR SITES EXPERIENCING FOG, ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR, AND FOG MAY LIFT INTO A LOW CLOUD BASE
BEFORE ERODING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 10 38 22 37 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 17 41 22 46 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 13 42 24 44 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 6 37 17 35 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 12 42 22 44 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 13 42 22 42 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 12 39 23 42 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 8 37 20 39 / 0 0 0 10
F10 12 40 24 42 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 20 42 24 46 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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