859
FXUS64 KTSA 281812
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE WEEK.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S UNDERNEATH SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING, A SWIFT-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OK BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ON ITS BACKSIDE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONSENSUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ONE LIMITING FACTOR THAT MAY INHIBIT OR PERHAPS DELAY
FOG FROM DEVELOPING WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
WITH THAT SAID, WAS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING FOG WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE THE MORE RIPE FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT, WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAPPING INTO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AS IT IS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY STARTING SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAW IN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETTER DETAILS TO COME IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1043 AM CST WED JAN 28 2026
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, BUT THEY WILL BE
AT OR ABOVE 15 KFT. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT INTO NORTHEAST OK
THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING KBVO TO ENE WIND, WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP,
WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR KMLC NEAR DAWN. CEILINGS WILL COME DOWN
IN EASTERN OK BY MID MORNING TO 5-8 KFT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES COULD OCCUR IN EASTERN OK THURSDAY LATE MORNING, BUT
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 22 38 16 31 / 0 10 0 10
FSM 21 45 24 38 / 0 10 10 10
MLC 25 44 20 37 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 17 35 12 29 / 0 10 0 10
FYV 22 44 18 33 / 0 10 10 10
BYV 23 42 18 30 / 0 10 10 10
MKO 24 43 18 34 / 0 10 0 10
MIO 20 37 15 28 / 0 10 10 10
F10 25 41 17 35 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 25 48 24 42 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page