546
FXUS64 KTSA 290405
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1005 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- PATCHY DENSE FREEZING FOG MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WITH LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE WEEK.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WITH MINIMUM WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
BELOW ZERO.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 817 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
THE LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE ISN'T AS EXCITED ABOUT THE FOG
POTENTIAL COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY. SOME RESPONSE TO THE LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELD SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, AND THIS MAY KEEP THINGS
MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT HIGHER COVERAGE OF DENSE FOG. ELECTED TO
KNOCK COVERAGE DOWN TO PATCHY AND FOCUS THE AREA FROM FAR EASTERN
OK INTO WESTERN AR AS MOST FAVORABLE.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
LOW-IMPACT WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S UNDERNEATH SUNNY OR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE DISTRICT
THIS AFTERNOON.
BY EARLY EVENING, A SWIFT-MOVING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EJECT OFF THE ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP AND BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THE
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WESTERN OK BY DAYBREAK
THURSDAY, DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ON ITS BACKSIDE. THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR DURING
THE DAYTIME THURSDAY.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH TONIGHT. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. CONSENSUS IN MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. ONE LIMITING FACTOR THAT MAY INHIBIT OR PERHAPS DELAY
FOG FROM DEVELOPING WILL BE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT.
WITH THAT SAID, WAS CONFIDENCE ENOUGH TO ADD SOME PATCHY FREEZING
FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FAR NORTHEAST
OK AND FAR NORTHWEST AR. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF FREEZING FOG WILL
REMAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK AND THROUGH THE ARKANSAS RIVER
VALLEY, WHERE THE MORE RIPE FOG CONDITIONS WILL BE.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW, WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT, WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY. DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE BEEN
PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAPPING INTO VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE AS IT IS MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND NORTHWEST AR. OTHERWISE,
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSING FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND A 1044MB SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE LIMITED INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, BUT ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE MAY PRODUCE A FEW SPOTTY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES FRIDAY EVENING/NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AND IMPACTS ARE NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DANGEROUSLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE AREA SATURDAY MORNING, WITH WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW ZERO. COLD WEATHER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODIFY STARTING SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY
WINDS DRAW IN WARMER AIR INTO THE AREA. BY TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND CLOSER TO AVERAGE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
MID-UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S. NEXT BEST CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL COME WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
SYSTEM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BETTER DETAILS TO COME IN FUTURE
FORECASTS.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. LOWER CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER ACROSS EASTERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON,
SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR BUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NW AR FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS INTO NE OK
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AND LIKELY WOULDN'T IMPACT AIRCRAFT OPS MUCH
ANYWAY. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS E OK.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 23 39 17 31 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 21 47 23 38 / 0 20 10 0
MLC 26 46 20 37 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 18 37 13 30 / 0 20 0 0
FYV 23 47 17 33 / 0 20 20 0
BYV 23 43 19 30 / 0 10 30 0
MKO 23 43 18 34 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 20 39 15 28 / 0 10 10 0
F10 24 43 18 35 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 23 48 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...30
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