368
FXUS64 KTSA 290440
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1019 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
- PATCHY FREEZING FOG MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTER ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- LOW CHANCE OF A FEW RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT, WITH MINIMUM
WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING BELOW ZERO.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE ROCKIES TONIGHT WILL SWING
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO
INCREASING HIGHER CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM, LOW
LEVEL WINDS WILL ALSO RESPOND TO SOME DEGREE OVERNIGHT. THESE TWO
FACTORS WILL REDUCE FREEZING FOG POTENTIAL COMPARED TO LAST COUPLE
OF NIGHTS, HOWEVER VALLEY LOCATIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN
AR WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL IMPACT FROM CLOUDS/WIND AND THUS WILL
STILL HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FREEZING FOG, AND MAY
INDUCE A FEW ADDITIONAL SLICK SPOTS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH
MID THURSDAY MORNING.
MOISTURE PROFILES WITH THE APPROACHING WAVE ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE,
BUT SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN MAY BE FORCED AS THE WAVE SLIDES JUST
TO OUR NORTH AND INDUCES SFC LOW PRESSURE THAT TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK. TEMP PROFILES MAY COOL ENOUGH ON BACK SIDE OF SYSTEM
FOR A MIX OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW, HOWEVER THIS WILL BE OF LITTLE
OR NO IMPACT. WINDS ON BACK SIDE WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE NORTH
LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1019 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
INITIAL SURGE OF COLDER AIR ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
AS THE WAVE DEPARTS TO THE EAST. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL LIKELY REMAIN
BELOW FREEZING ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF NORTHEAST OK AND NORTHWEST
AR. MORE ROBUST SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY EVENING WITH AN INCREASE IN NORTH WINDS AS TEMPS FALL
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BY SATURDAY MORNING. COLD WEATHER
HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD AS WIND CHILLS FALL
BELOW ZERO IN MOST AREAS. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FLURRIES IS POSSIBLE
AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN, BUT HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH MID 20S IN
MUCH OF THE AREA.
SFC HIGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH RETURN FLOW QUICKLY ESTABLISHED
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, MAKING THE BITTER COLD SNAP SHORT-
LIVED. MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL OCCURS
EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING SYSTEM, WHICH BRINGS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION MID-WEEK. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
MORE LIKE A RAIN EVENT WITH SOME LOW WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL
POSSIBLE ON THE BACK SIDE, BUT DETAILS ARE NOT YET CLEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST WED JAN 28 2026
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, BOTH ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE, WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY. LOWER CLOUD WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
CLOSER TO THE LOW CENTER ACROSS EASTERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON,
SPREADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO THE EVENING. MOST OF THIS CLOUD
COVER SHOULD BE LOW-END VFR BUT A BRIEF MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE. BY
THURSDAY EVENING, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO NW AR FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WITH LOW-END VFR CIGS INTO NE OK
THURSDAY EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WITH THE SYSTEM ARE TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE TAFS AND LIKELY WOULDN'T IMPACT AIRCRAFT OPS MUCH
ANYWAY. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST TO 20 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS E OK.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 23 39 17 31 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 21 47 23 38 / 0 20 10 0
MLC 26 46 20 37 / 0 10 10 0
BVO 18 37 13 30 / 0 20 0 0
FYV 23 47 17 33 / 0 20 20 0
BYV 23 43 19 30 / 0 10 30 0
MKO 23 43 18 34 / 0 10 10 0
MIO 20 39 15 28 / 0 10 10 0
F10 24 43 18 35 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 23 48 25 42 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...30
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