290
FXUS64 KTSA 121618
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1018 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1012 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- A SLIGHT UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTH WINDS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME, WITH LOW CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 805 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
THE LATEST SHORT TERM FORECAST IS STILL ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR
CHANGES MADE OR PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN THURSDAY AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE
BY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS WILL RAISE
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SOME GIVEN THE RECENT DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70
DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CST WED FEB 11 2026
THE MUCH ADVERTISED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT IS STILL ON TRACK
FOR MAINLY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FRIDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE
SATURDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS INTO THE ARKLATEX. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1-2 INCHES APPEAR LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL, BUT NON-ZERO, GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE UPPER
SYSTEM.
ONCE THIS SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY, A QUICK RETURN TO UNSEASONABLY WARM
WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY AS FUELS DRY OUT RAPIDLY AFTER THE WEEKEND
RAINS, WITH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY CURRENTLY APPEARING TO BE THE
DAYS OF GREATEST CONCERN. THE PATTERN NEXT WEEK IS ONE THAT
TYPICALLY YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT, AND THEN RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 69 44 71 55 / 0 0 50 100
FSM 68 43 73 53 / 0 0 20 80
MLC 70 47 75 58 / 0 10 30 90
BVO 68 37 70 50 / 0 0 40 100
FYV 64 42 71 50 / 0 0 20 90
BYV 63 41 68 50 / 0 0 10 80
MKO 68 45 70 55 / 0 0 40 90
MIO 64 42 70 52 / 0 0 30 90
F10 70 45 73 56 / 0 10 40 90
HHW 69 48 72 58 / 0 10 20 60
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06
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