285
FXUS64 KTSA 121745
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1145 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1145 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- A SLIGHT UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY, MAINLY
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED SOUTH WINDS,
WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN DEW POINTS.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME, WITH LOW CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NEAR THE RED
RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN
HAZARD.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ON THE INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING, WITH
MESONET GUSTS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA IN THE 20 TO 25
MPH RANGE COMMON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH TEMPERATURES THAT ARE
ALREADY NEAR SEASONAL MAXES AND CONTINUED DRY FUELS, THIS WILL
DRIVE A LIMITED FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THIS
AFTERNOON. DURING THE OVERNIGHT, UNEVENTFUL WEATHER IS FORECAST,
WITH LOW TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THOSE SEEN LAST NIGHT GIVEN
TODAY'S MODEST UPTICK IN DEW POINTS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
OF IMMEDIATE CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED IS THE MUCH ADVERTISED
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL BEGINNING FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF INTEREST REMAINS
OFF THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING, WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF IT INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA. MUCH OF FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY,
WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT HOLDING OFF UNTIL MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MORE EXPANSIVE DEVELOPMENT REMAINS EXPECTED
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL JET, SIGNALING
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO REALLY BE THE FIRST OF TWO EPISODES OF HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL DURING THIS TIME FRAME. PARTS OF NORTHEAST TO EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS HAVE THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO SEE THIS INITIAL ROUND OF HEAVIER RAIN, AND HONESTLY,
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PARTS OF FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA DRY
THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ONE NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE NBM
DETERMINISTIC POP FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT WAS TO SLIGHTLY DECREASE
THE POPS IN SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A RESULT.
IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN, ELEVATED INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO
APPEAR ON THE LOW SIDE, ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
LEVEL JET, THAT COULD BE ENOUGH TO LEAD TO AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT
INITIALLY. INTO THE DAY SATURDAY, THE UPPER SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT
SURFACE LOW WILL FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO AND ACROSS THE AREA,
FOCUSING THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS SOUTHWARD FOR THE SECOND ROUND GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TRACK. SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAY AGAIN
FEATURE AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA, BUT THE
BETTER INSTABILITY AND LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS SHOULD STAY SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES
FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ONE OTHER CHANGE MADE DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WAS TO INCREASE THE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING,
WITH STRONG NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY 850 FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE THE WOUND UP LOW LEVEL SYSTEM.
LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, LEADING TO A QUICK WARMUP WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS. DESPITE
THE WEEKEND RAINS, THIS SHOULD LEAD TO QUICK DRYING OF FINE FUELS
GIVEN THE DRY PRE-RAINFALL CONDITIONS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR
INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH, THIS IS A
PATTERN THAT OFTEN LEADS TO STRONGER WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES /RESULTING FROM DOWNSLOPE FLOW/ THAN FEATURED
IN THE NBM DETERMINISTIC DATA AT THESE RANGES. LOCALLY NEAR
CRITICAL GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES SHOULD BE EXPECTED IN PARTS
OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH A BROADER AREA OF SIMILAR FOR NORTHEAST INTO EAST CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY COMES
IN FOR THURSDAY, BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY EXTEND INTO
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL, WITH A DRYLINE/COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION LEADING TO INCREASED WINDS AND LOWER DEW POINTS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1012 AM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER, CEILINGS WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN WITHIN VFR UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
TODAY, WEAKENING OVERNIGHT, AND THEN RESUMING FRIDAY MORNING. NO
RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 44 71 55 66 / 0 50 100 100
FSM 43 73 53 67 / 0 20 80 100
MLC 47 75 58 67 / 10 30 90 100
BVO 37 70 50 64 / 0 40 100 100
FYV 42 71 50 64 / 0 20 90 100
BYV 41 68 50 60 / 0 10 80 100
MKO 45 70 55 65 / 0 40 90 100
MIO 42 70 52 61 / 0 30 90 100
F10 45 73 56 66 / 10 40 90 100
HHW 48 72 58 65 / 10 20 60 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page