929
FXUS64 KTSA 130459
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1059 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME, WITH LOW CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NEAR THE RED
RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES, WITH THE
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD LIKELY
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL EXIST
NEAR THE RED RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-2
INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FROM THE NBM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FINE FUELS QUICKLY DRY OUT AFTER THE
WEEKEND RAINS. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND LIKELY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY.
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO LOW-END VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON
FROM WEST TO EAST. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOWERING CEILINGS, A
FEW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN OK.
PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND
EVENTUALLY WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO WEST/NORTHWEST AR LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
MAY LOWER TO MVFR, IFR, OR EVEN LIFR IF A HEAVY SHOWER OR STORM
ROLLS OVER ANY TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, A MIXTURE OF MVFR AND VFR WILL
BE THE MAIN FLIGHT CATEGORIES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
WILL DEVELOP AT THE TAIL-END OF THE PERIOD, BUT TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
MEJIA
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 44 71 56 64 / 0 40 90 100
FSM 43 72 53 64 / 0 20 70 100
MLC 48 73 58 65 / 0 30 70 100
BVO 37 70 52 64 / 0 50 90 100
FYV 41 71 51 61 / 0 20 90 100
BYV 40 69 50 58 / 0 10 90 100
MKO 45 71 55 64 / 0 30 80 100
MIO 41 70 52 60 / 0 20 90 100
F10 45 73 57 65 / 0 30 80 100
HHW 48 73 58 64 / 10 20 60 100
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...67
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