961
FXUS64 KTSA 131158
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOCUSED IN THE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
EVENING TIME FRAME, WITH LOW CHANCE FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
IMPACTS.
- LOW CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRIMARILY NEAR THE RED
RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST THU FEB 12 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FRIDAY EVENING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES, WITH THE
GREATEST STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE FRIDAY NIGHT PERIOD LIKELY
REMAINING ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS DURING THE NIGHT. ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL POTENTIAL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS SATURDAY FROM
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GIVEN THE TRACK OF
THE UPPER SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY, THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO
OUR SOUTH, BUT AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL EXIST
NEAR THE RED RIVER SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL AVERAGE 1-2
INCHES, WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AND HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FROM THE NBM SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS FINE FUELS QUICKLY DRY OUT AFTER THE
WEEKEND RAINS. NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA LOOKS TO BE THE AREA OF GREATEST
CONCERN, WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE SPREAD RATES EXPECTED
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY
AS WELL WHEN A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH OR MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 558 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND
THEN GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MVFR/LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, MVFR CONDITIONS
LOOK TO BE COMMON OVER THE CWA. WITHIN THE LOWER CEILINGS, SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP FOR THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
BECOME MORE LIKELY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
WILL CONTINUE WITH PROB30 GROUPS FOR ONSET TIMING THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND THEN PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. WINDS THROUGH
THE PERIOD VARY BETWEEN EASTERLY AND SOUTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 56 64 47 / 40 90 100 60
FSM 72 53 64 51 / 20 70 100 80
MLC 73 58 65 49 / 30 70 100 70
BVO 70 52 64 45 / 50 90 100 40
FYV 71 51 61 46 / 20 90 100 80
BYV 69 50 58 47 / 10 90 100 80
MKO 71 55 64 48 / 30 80 100 70
MIO 70 52 60 46 / 20 90 100 60
F10 73 57 65 48 / 30 80 100 70
HHW 73 58 64 52 / 20 60 100 80
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...20
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