810
FXUS64 KTSA 131724
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACTS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK
FOR SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY MORNING, AND
SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM, MILD AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AND
LOWER WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 70S FOR MOST AREAS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM.
BY THIS EVENING, UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO
THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW. MEANWHILE, A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE INCREASE IN FORCED LIFT AND GOOD
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CAM GUIDANCE LOOKS A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN EARLIER, SO THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION WAS DELAYED A
FEW HOURS.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST OK DURING THE LATE
EVENING TO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS, WORKING THEIR WAY SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL. THERE IS
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS IN EASTERN OK, MAINLY DUE TO HAIL DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE MINIMAL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST- CENTRAL AR UNTIL CLOSER TO DAWN.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING, WITH HEAVY PRECIPITATION AT TIMES THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDDAY. THERE IS A CAM SIGNAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS (HAIL/WIND) ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BAND. THE MAIN PRECIPITATION BAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OUT OF THE AREA INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT APPROACHES SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
OK BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY ENDS. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL WILL
MOSTLY RANGE FROM 1-2 INCHES, BUT A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE UP TO 3
INCHES. SOME MINOR AND LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD OCCUR BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS AT THIS TIME. COOL BUT DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS
UNLIKELY, AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL FOR ONE
ADDITIONAL DAY.
STRONG RIDGING RETURNS INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
RISING AS THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN WARMS. MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
SLOW, SO THE COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL
PROMOTE CURING OF FINE FUELS AND SOME ASSOCIATED FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. OF COURSE, THE SPEED AT WHICH FIRE POTENTIAL RETURNS
WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN MAY ARRIVE AROUND NEXT FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES, WITH DETERIORATING CONDITIONS AFTER 06Z AT
THE NE OK SITES AND AT THE REMAINING SITES AROUND 12-15Z. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WITH SHORT PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP
THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE NE OK TERMINALS, SPREADING
ACROSS THE SITES LATE EVENING INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL REACH THE FAR NW AR SITES AROUND DAYBREAK, WITH
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MORE LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE VALID
TAF PERIOD AT MLC/FSM. EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE
IMPACT PERIODS, DETERIORATING TO IFR WITH A MIX OF VISIBILITY AND
CEILING IMPACTS. WINDS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST. A LOW CHANCE OF LLWS WILL EXIST TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES BUT GIVEN THE SHORT-DURATION AND SPOTTY NATURE
EXPECTED, WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 62 49 61 / 100 100 40 0
FSM 55 66 53 63 / 70 100 80 10
MLC 60 67 51 61 / 70 100 60 0
BVO 53 61 47 61 / 100 100 40 0
FYV 51 60 48 58 / 90 100 70 10
BYV 50 59 49 56 / 90 100 80 20
MKO 56 63 51 60 / 90 100 50 10
MIO 52 60 49 58 / 100 100 50 0
F10 58 65 51 59 / 90 100 50 0
HHW 60 66 55 61 / 50 100 80 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...22
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