275
FXUS64 KTSA 141156
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
556 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 556 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IMPACTS.
- SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH THE GREATER
POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO SATURDAY EVENING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
AN UPPER LOW SLOWLY TRACKING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND INTO
THE PLAINS WILL BRINGING INCREASING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
HAVE INITIATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT THIS TREND TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH STORMS SPREADING INTO
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. COVERAGE SHOULD EXPAND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS MORE WIDESPREAD ASCENT OVERSPREADS
THE REGION OWING TO AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET. WHILE MIXED LAYER
INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN RATHER LIMITED OVER
THE REGION, ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXISTS, WHICH COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, THOUGH SOME GUSTY WINDS
COULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER CELLS.
MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS UNTIL AFTER DAWN SATURDAY MORNING AS
THE COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SLOWLY SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS COMPLEX SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
SATURDAY, BUT THE THREAT SHOULD WANE WITH TIME. ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SURFACE
PRESSURE TROUGH BACK ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ACTIVITY WILL THEN
PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD AND THROUGH THE CWA THROUGH THE EVENING
SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THEN REGION.
SEASONABLY HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL LIKELY LEAD TO POCKETS OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OCCURS. WIDESPREAD RAIN TOTALS OF 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES APPEARS
LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2+ INCHES WHERE SOME
TRAINING OCCURS. THE PROLONGED DRY PERIOD SHOULD LIMIT THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS HOWEVER.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CST FRI FEB 13 2026
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD BE EXITING THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, CLEARING SKIES AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
FOLLOW THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE
NORMAL STILL ON SUNDAY, EVEN BEHIND THE FRONT. STRONG RIDGING
RETURNS INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE SLOW AS WELL EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE
COMBINATION OF WARM, DRY, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS WELL. THE DEGREE TO WHICH FIRE
WEATHER BECOMES A CONCERN WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
RECEIVED THIS WEEKEND. THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD ARRIVE IN
THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIMEFRAME, BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 556 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA TODAY WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING, THOUGH COULD RETURN FOR A PERIOD AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS MOVES THROUGH. ACROSS THE REST OF THE
CWA, RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHANCES OF STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE
EVENING HOURS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT BEFORE THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS. WILL CONTINUE WITH
TEMPO GROUPS FOR TIMING OF GREATER STORM POTENTIAL. WITHIN THE
PRECIPITATION, LOW END VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL TO
IFR/MFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND REMAIN COMMON
THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH THE
DRIZZLE POTENTIAL OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WINDS START OUT BETWEEN
EAST AND SOUTH AND THEN BECOME BREEZY/GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO
NORTH THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 66 48 63 42 / 100 60 0 0
FSM 63 52 65 42 / 100 80 10 0
MLC 66 50 63 41 / 100 70 0 0
BVO 65 44 64 37 / 90 50 0 0
FYV 62 46 62 38 / 100 80 10 0
BYV 59 48 59 40 / 100 80 10 0
MKO 63 49 63 40 / 100 70 0 0
MIO 62 47 62 40 / 100 60 0 0
F10 66 49 63 40 / 100 70 0 0
HHW 65 53 63 42 / 100 80 10 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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