991
FXUS64 KTSA 141723
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1123 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLY REDEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA.
- PRECIPITATION ENDS LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH
INCREASING NORTH WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR, AND SOME PLACES
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MILES AN
HOUR COMMON LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. FINE FUELS WILL QUICKLY DRY, AND
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM, AND THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST INITIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE LOWER THOSE DAYS, SO ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME
PLACES.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND LATE
THURSDAY, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
POOR AVIATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT MLC AND AT THE W AR SITES
GIVEN THE LOCATION OF THE EXISTING RAINFALL AND IMPACTS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT LARGELY MVFR CONDITIONS IN THESE AREAS
WITH PERIODS OF IFR FOR THE FIRST SEVERAL HOURS OF THE TAF, WITH
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. FOR NE OK,
CONFIDENCE IN ONSITE IMPACTS FROM PRECIPITATION IS LOW, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR REDEVELOPMENT INTO THESE TERMINALS
GIVEN CAM OUTPUT AND TRENDS IN THE RADAR MOSAIC. SKEPTICAL AT THE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE REDEVELOPMENT OFFERED BY THE CAM
OUTPUT, AND AS SUCH, WILL NOT INCLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A VCSH
FOR THOSE SITES EARLY IN THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION, A MESOSCALE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AT XNA/ROG FOR
THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE TAF, WHICH WILL BE HANDLED IN
TEMPO GROUPS. AFTER THE PRECIP MOVES OUT, THE TREND AT ALL SITES
SHOULD BE FOR EXPANSIVE REDUCED CEILINGS AND A SHIFT TO GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS. CEILINGS MAY IMPROVE PRIOR TO 18Z TOMORROW AT
BVO, WHICH WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE TAF, BUT THE REMAINING SITES
WILL REMAIN RESTRICTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 47 66 43 / 90 40 0 0
FSM 63 50 66 41 / 100 50 10 0
MLC 65 49 64 40 / 100 40 0 0
BVO 65 45 66 35 / 90 30 0 0
FYV 61 47 63 34 / 100 50 0 0
BYV 59 47 61 40 / 100 50 10 0
MKO 62 47 64 41 / 100 40 0 0
MIO 62 46 64 41 / 100 50 0 0
F10 66 47 65 41 / 90 40 0 0
HHW 65 51 64 43 / 100 50 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22
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