087
FXUS64 KTSA 142328
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WIDESPREAD RAIN ENDS THIS EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND FEW ISOLATED
STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR, AND SOME PLACES
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MILES AN
HOUR COMMON LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. FINE FUELS WILL QUICKLY DRY, AND
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM, AND THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST INITIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE LOWER THOSE DAYS, SO ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME
PLACES.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND LATE
THURSDAY, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IFR AND BLO CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT ALL SITES, WITH
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL DATA THAT CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING
20 KTS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 47 66 43 73 / 40 0 0 0
FSM 50 66 41 73 / 50 10 0 0
MLC 49 64 40 72 / 40 0 0 0
BVO 45 66 35 73 / 30 0 0 0
FYV 47 63 34 70 / 50 0 0 0
BYV 47 61 40 69 / 50 10 0 0
MKO 47 64 41 71 / 40 0 0 0
MIO 46 64 41 69 / 50 0 0 0
F10 47 65 41 71 / 40 0 0 0
HHW 51 64 43 69 / 50 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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