871
FXUS64 KTSA 150124
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
724 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 723 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED STORM REMAIN POSSIBLE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND BREEZY
TO WINDY CONDITIONS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 723 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MARCHING EAST
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS THIS EVENING. AT THE SURFACE, BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER EASTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL OK, AS
WELL AS NORTH-CENTRAL TX. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTRACT AND DEEPEN LATER TONIGHT AS IT
MOVES EAST INTO SOUTHERN AR. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW,
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING GUSTY BEHIND IT OUT OF THE NORTH. WINDS/GUSTS WERE
BUMPED UP SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT ABOVE THE MODEL BLEND (NBM). ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED
STORM DOWN NEAR THE RED RIVER REMAIN POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON.. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR, AND SOME PLACES
MAY SEE AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR MORE OF RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY REDEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA, WITH THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUING INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE ENDING OVERNIGHT.
NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MILES AN
HOUR COMMON LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1105 AM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SKIES WILL CLEAR SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS DIMINISHING.
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL CLIMB INTO THE 60S. FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE DURING THE FIRST PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AND TEMPERATURES WARM TO
UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS. FINE FUELS WILL QUICKLY DRY, AND
ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST AND
POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
HAVE SEEN LITTLE RAINFALL WITH THE CURRENT SYSTEM, AND THESE
LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE THE GREATEST INITIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.
WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE LIGHTER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT DEW
POINTS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO BE LOWER THOSE DAYS, SO ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOME
PLACES.
A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SOMETIME AROUND LATE
THURSDAY, WITH COOLER CONDITIONS FOLLOWING FOR FRIDAY INTO THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. IFR AND BLO CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT ALL SITES, WITH
INDICATIONS FROM MODEL DATA THAT CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT MAY IMPACT
TERMINALS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING
20 KTS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 65 49 66 43 / 50 50 0 0
FSM 62 51 66 41 / 100 60 10 0
MLC 65 50 64 40 / 100 40 0 0
BVO 65 44 66 35 / 50 50 0 0
FYV 62 45 63 34 / 100 50 0 0
BYV 58 47 61 40 / 100 50 10 0
MKO 63 49 64 41 / 100 40 0 0
MIO 62 47 64 41 / 50 60 0 0
F10 65 49 65 41 / 90 40 0 0
HHW 64 52 64 43 / 100 50 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...30
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