473
FXUS64 KTSA 150430
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1030 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1030 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
- SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS AND MAYBE AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER REMAIN
POSSIBLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.
- PRECIPITATION ENDS OVERNIGHT, WITH INCREASING NORTH WINDS INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD JUST SOUTH
OF THE RED RIVER ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. ADDITIONALLY, SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND ABOUT TO ENTER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS IT TRACKS
THROUGH THE REGION. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED OVERALL, THOUGH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD
BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PICK UP BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO END FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA.
SKIES CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY WHILE WIND GRADUALLY DIE OFF AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE REGION. POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO SOME AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT SAW MORE RAIN THIS WEEKEND. PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS LOOK TO BE BEST SUITED FOR FOG
SUNDAY NIGHT AS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD.
ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN MAINLY TOWARD FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK AS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE WITH BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS. DEWPOINTS WILL
REMAIN RATHER HIGH THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD HELP
LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL SOME. STILL WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP BOTH AFTERNOONS WHICH COMBINED WITH DRYING
FUELS WILL RAISE FIRE SPREAD RATES. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER ON
TUESDAY COULD ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL BY
KEEPING WIND SPEEDS FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL.
A SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY,
BRINGING IN LOWER DEWPOINT AIR AND THUS MUCH MORE FAVORABLE RH
CONDITIONS FOR FIRE INITIATION. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE
LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, BUT THE DRIER AIR WILL KEEP
ELEVATED FIRE CONCERNS GOING INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. A COLD FRONT
IS STILL ON TRACK FOR LATER IN THE WEEK, BRINGING SOME SLIGHTLY
COOLER AIR TO THE REGION ALONG WITH SOME VERY LOW RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CST SAT FEB 14 2026
POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AREAWIDE AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. IFR AND BLO CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES AT ALL
SITES, WITH INDICATIONS FROM MODEL DATA THAT CIGS SHOULD SCATTER OUT
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SCT SHRA ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT MAY IMPACT
THE SE OK AND NW AR TERMINALS THROUGH 09Z. NORTH WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS NEAR OR EXCEEDING
20 KTS. WINDS WILL BACK OFF BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
LACY
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 49 65 43 74 / 40 0 0 0
FSM 51 67 41 72 / 40 0 0 0
MLC 50 64 42 72 / 70 0 0 0
BVO 44 65 38 74 / 20 0 0 0
FYV 45 62 38 70 / 40 10 0 0
BYV 47 60 39 69 / 40 10 0 0
MKO 49 65 41 70 / 30 0 0 0
MIO 47 63 41 69 / 50 0 0 0
F10 49 65 41 72 / 50 0 0 0
HHW 52 63 42 69 / 80 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30
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