622
FXUS64 KTSA 151757
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1157 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
OCCURRED SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT BOTH DAYS. EVEN SO, THE WINDY CONDITIONS
COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AT LEAST
AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PASSAGE OF A SURFACE TROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO LOWER
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG THOSE DAYS, BUT
IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY, SO AT LEAST AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
DANGER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THESE DAYS AS WELL.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT, WITH A REINFORCING FRONT EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL COOL TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. AT
LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY ALSO DEVELOP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, BUT
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD
FOR ALL SITES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AT LEAST A LOW CHANCE OF FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE OK AND NW AR LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPO GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR SITES IN THESE AREAS, THOUGH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF VSBY REDUCTIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. ANY FOG IS LIKELY
TO DISSIPATE BY MID MORNING. OTHERWISE, BREEZY NORTH WINDS
DECREASE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM OVERNIGHT.
WINDS THEN INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 43 73 55 76 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 40 72 48 73 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 41 71 53 75 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 35 74 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 34 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 39 69 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 41 71 51 74 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 41 69 53 73 / 0 0 0 0
F10 41 71 53 74 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 41 70 50 72 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...43
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