375
FXUS64 KTSA 161128
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
528 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 528 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY, AND WINDY
CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHERE HEAVIER RAINS
FELL ON SATURDAY. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS THE AREA.
THE SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH POSSIBLE DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RESPOND ACCORDINGLY AS HIGHS RISE WELL ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE 70S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BECOME ELEVATED FOR
A TIME MONDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS DRIER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THAT MISSED OUT ON WETTING RAINFALL. AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT HOWEVER,
WHICH SHOULD TEMPER THE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
BOWLAN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM CST SUN FEB 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. SOUTH WINDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE STRONGEST WINDS OF THE PERIOD TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ONE INHIBITING FACTOR WILL BE WIDESPREAD MID TO HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD COVER FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT FULL MIXING AND KEEP WINDS
AND TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING THEIR FULL POTENTIAL. HUMIDITY
VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 30 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL
ON TUESDAY. BUT, ELEVATED FIRE DANGER CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS GUST IN THE 35 MPH RANGE AND
FINE FUELS DRY OUT.
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY,
ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...DROPPING HUMIDITY
VALUES INTO THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS LOOK TO BE NOT AS STRONG ON THOSE DAYS, BUT STILL
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP ELEVATED FIRE DANGER MENTION IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY OR
THURSDAY NIGHT, BRINGING A RETURN TO COOLER, NEAR NORMAL
CONDITIONS FOR LATE WEEK. A REINFORCING FRONT OVER THE WEEKEND
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW
RAIN/THUNDER CHANCES WILL ALSO RE-ENTER THE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AND OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS
LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS POINT.
BOWLAN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 528 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD ACROSS THE CWA. LIGHT WINDS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
QUICKLY INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH LATE MORNING
AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION. WINDS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING, THOUGH REMAIN BREEZY OVERNIGHT. STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
TONIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR FOR ALL TAF SITES. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 75 54 74 51 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 74 47 72 55 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 72 53 73 54 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 75 49 74 46 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 71 48 71 53 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 71 49 70 56 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 72 51 72 52 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 72 51 71 50 / 0 0 0 10
F10 74 53 73 51 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 70 50 71 56 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20
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