023
FXUS64 KTSA 161740
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1140 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- LOW POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
ACROSS FAR SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR.
- INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS RETURN EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, LOW HUMIDITY,
AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RAIN CHANCES RETURN THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
AT LEAST LIMITED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH.
HOWEVER, RH VALUES WILL GENERALLY REMAIN GREATER THAN 30 PERCENT
HELPING REDUCE OVERALL POTENTIAL. A SEASONABLY MILD NIGHT IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER HOLD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OR UPPER
40S. PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK INTO W-CENTRAL AR WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER AND CLOUD COVER LESSER. AS WITH TODAY, ANY MORNING FOG IS
LIKELY TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY MID TUESDAY MORNING.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST THEME THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY, DESPITE INCREASED MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN GUSTY, WITH MAX WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 25 TO 35 MPH. DEPENDING ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING THAT
OCCURS, SOME GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE, THOUGH CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HELP REDUCE THIS POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, MIN RH
VALUES SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY, KEEPING OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM REACHING FULL
POTENTIAL. A SFC TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING, BRINGING DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL INITIALLY BE LIGHTER OUT OF THE WEST
FOLLOWING THE TROUGH, BUT INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY
THE AFTERNOON, GUSTING UP TO 25 MPH. GIVEN THE MUCH DRIER AIR,
THIS WILL MAINTAIN A LIMITED THREAT OF FIRE WEATHER WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, A SFC LOW EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND DRAGS A DRY
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS AS WELL AS CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. AS A RESULT,
FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHER ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NE OK AND NW AR.
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO THE CWA LATE THURSDAY/
EARLY FRIDAY, BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE
(50S) FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIVERGE BY THIS WEEKEND/ EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AT LEAST LOW RAIN
POTENTIAL WORKING ITS WAY BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THIS WILL
ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON STRENGTH AND POSITION OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SET TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL STATES... WITH A MORE FLAT
AND EMBEDDED WAVE SOLUTION IMPLYING LESSER PRECIP CHANCES FOR OUR
AREA. ANY RAIN WOULD BE WELCOME TO HELP LIMIT FIRE CONCERNS GOING
FORWARD, BUT CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTING MUCH THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTH
WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. LLWS MENTION WILL BE MAINTAINED TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 74 50 77 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 46 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 53 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 74 44 77 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 48 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 49 70 56 74 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 50 72 52 75 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 51 72 50 73 / 0 0 10 0
F10 54 73 51 76 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 49 71 57 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05
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