961
FXUS64 KTSA 170440
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1005 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY,
DUE TO THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION (SOME WINTRY?) CHANCES
RETURN BY THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND LEE
SIDE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN SOME
SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SHELTERED LOWER
ARK RIVER VALLEY. THERE WILL ALSO BE AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUD, AS WELL AS LOWER LEVEL CLOUD MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
OUACHITAS. AS A RESULT, TUESDAY MORNING LOWS WILL BE MILD AND CLOSER
TO AVERAGE HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS LEE SIDE
PRESSURES FALL IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY
NEAR THE WEST COAST. WIND GUSTS WILL RAMP UP QUICKLY AT THE START OF
BL MIXING MID-MORNING, WITH GUSTS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL (40 MPH)
POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR NE OK INTO NW AR AND BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH IN
MOST OTHER PLACES. AFTER A BRIEF DROP AROUND MIDDAY, GUSTS SHOULD
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUD COVER (SOME OF WHICH MAY BE THICK PER HIGH RH
PROGS IN THE ENTIRE 500-250MB LAYER) MAY LIMIT MIXING ENOUGH TO KEEP
GUSTS BELOW MAX POTENTIAL.
DESPITE THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS AND WARM, DRY CONDITIONS, MOISTURE
RETURN WILL KEEP DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THUS, RH VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO LOW LEVELS ACROSS
EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. IN ADDITION, THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD
COVER IS LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXING, WHICH CAN ACT TO ENHANCE FIRE
BEHAVIOR. THESE FACTORS WILL ACT TO LIMIT THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER
THREAT TUESDAY.
LACY
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1005 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX OVER THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A PACIFIC FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN TANDEM WITH THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MUCH DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE WEAKENING FRONT. CLOUDS
SHOULD THIN OUT BY WEDNESDAY AS WELL ALLOWING FOR MORE SUN THAT DAY.
SOME INCREASE IN SOUTH WINDS/GUSTS IS EXPECTED BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NE OK AS THE NEXT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EMERGES
ONTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. WITH THE DRY AIR IN PLACE, WIND GUSTS
20 TO 30 MPH COULD CREATE A SHORT-DURATION NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THREAT THERE UNTIL SUNSET WEDNESDAY EVENING.
THURSDAY IS SHAPING UP TO HAVE THE GREATEST FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL
DUE TO THE MOST FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF WINDS, SUNSHINE AND LOW
HUMIDITY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SHUNTED EAST QUICKLY
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY BY AN ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE SOUTH
OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER KS. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE, MODELS FORECAST
RH VALUES TO TANK TO NEAR OR EVEN BELOW 20% IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS
DRY AIR WILL COMBINE WITH WHAT LOOKS LIKE NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS
OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN FAVORABLE MIXING CONDITIONS WITH
NEAR FULL INSOLATION TO YIELD NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND FOR A LONGER DURATION.
A POLAR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE KS STATE LINE BY THE END OF THE
DAY AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
BEHIND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MUCH COOLER WEATHER AND LIGHTER
WINDS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE TIME BEING
ON FRIDAY.
UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS INCREASES CONSIDERABLY TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK, BUT MOST MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY IN THE SATURDAY-ISH TIME FRAME. THE GFS,
UKMET AND EC-AIFS BRING A VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE COMMA-HEAD
SHAPED PRECIP PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS TIME, WITH
THERMAL PROFILES COLD ENOUGH NEAR THE KS/MO BORDERS FOR SNOW, AND
ENOUGH QPF TO YIELD IMPACTFUL ACCUMULATIONS. OTHER DATA, SUCH AS THE
MOST PROBABLE 12Z ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS (SCENARIOS), OPERATIONAL EC AND
CANADIAN SUGGEST A MUCH WEAKER SYSTEM AND LIGHT PRECIP AT BEST. THE
EC ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS VERY LIGHT ACCUMS, THOUGH THE TREND HAS BEEN
UPWARD. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY STAY CLOSE
TO THE MODEL BLEND (NBM) FORECAST FOR NOW. THIS WILL INSERT LIGHT
ACCUMS NEAR THE KS BORDER, BUT THIS BEARS WATCHING.
LACY
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM CST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. GUSTS OF
25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LLWS MENTION
WILL BE MAINTAINED TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOW CLOUDS MAY
TRY TO SURGE NORTH LATE TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SE OK OR NW AR, BUT
SHOULD STAY SOUTH AND EAST OF ANY TAF SITES AS IT LOOKS RIGHT NOW,
BUT A LOW CHANCE FOR REDUCED CIG CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SE OK INTO W AR TUESDAY MORNING.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 54 75 49 76 / 0 0 10 0
FSM 47 73 53 77 / 0 0 10 0
MLC 53 73 53 76 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 49 75 42 75 / 0 0 10 0
FYV 47 72 52 75 / 0 0 10 0
BYV 49 71 56 74 / 0 0 10 0
MKO 51 72 50 75 / 0 0 10 0
MIO 51 72 48 74 / 0 0 20 0
F10 53 73 50 76 / 0 0 10 0
HHW 50 70 55 74 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...04
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