991
FXUS64 KTSA 171808
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1208 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY,
DUE TO THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY THE
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE FORECAST FOR TODAY, LARGELY DRIVEN BY STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS. A FEW WIND GUSTS IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE HAVE
BEEN NOTED ALREADY THIS MORNING ON BOTH THE MESONET AND SYNOPTIC
SITES IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE NORM
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THIS SAME AREA, WITH THE DENSE HIGH
CLOUDINESS LIMITING MIXING TO SOME EXTENT. THE HIGH CLOUDS ARE
ALSO LIMITING THE WARMUP, AND THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY
HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SOME FROM THE NBM OFFERING, MORE
TOWARD THE SHORT-TERM BLEND. WITH DEW POINTS WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN
THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50 AT MAX HEATING, MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE, FROM 35 TO 45 PERCENT. THIS
SERVES AS A LIMIT ON THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY.
TO THE SOUTH, LOW CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING, WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES PRIMARILY REMAINING JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. THE EXPECTATION IS FOR ANY LOW CLOUD
POTENTIAL TO REMAIN SOUTH OF I-40 THROUGH THE DAY.
MOVING INTO TONIGHT, SEASONABLY WARM OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES CAN
BE EXPECTED, WITH A NOTICEABLE REDUCTION IN THE LOW LEVEL DEW
POINTS IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY DAYBREAK, BEHIND A DRYLINE
PASSAGE. DEW POINTS TONIGHT HAVE BEEN REDUCED USING DATA FROM THE
HREF, TO SET THE STAGE FOR THE INCREASED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCREASE FURTHER WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE
REDUCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRYLINE.
A DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AND LOWER CLOUD COVER TOMORROW
WILL ALSO LEAD TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, IN THE MID AND
UPPER 70S AREAWIDE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SHOULD BE IN THE
15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE, EXCEPT FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PARTS OF THE AREA. A FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT WILL BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE THE DAY WITH THE WORST COMBINATION
OF VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMDITIES AND STRONG, GUSTY WINDS FOLLOWING
ANOTHER PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE PASSAGE. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL DROP INTO THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS ALMOST
THE ENTIRE AREA, AND WITH WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH
RANGE AND GUSTING TO 35 MPH, THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD NEAR
CRITICAL TO LOCALLY CRITICAL GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES EXISTS.
IN ADDITION, A WIND SHIFT FROM WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AND
FINALLY, TO NORTHERLY BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR ANY FIRE FIGHTING EFFORTS EXTENDING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND A PORTION OF EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, AS WELL AS FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED SOUTHWARD, DEPENDING ON HOW FUELS DRY OUT FROM THE
WEEKEND RAINS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
BEHIND THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP BACK TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS FROM FRIDAY, THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
DEVELOPS AND PERSISTS. A LOW CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND, AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IMPACTS ARE
UNLIKELY. WARMER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED BY TUESDAY, AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
UNDER EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS KMLC,
WHERE MVFR CIGS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO ERODE THIS MORNING. STILL EXPECT
THESE LOW CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE THEY PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE, STRONG
SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS
20-30 KTS. SFC WINDS DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH 40-50 KT LLWS IS
LIKELY AREAWIDE, INITIALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, BECOMING WESTERLY
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. LLJ WEAKENS BY MID MORNING WITH LIGHT WESTERLY
SFC WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 74 50 76 53 / 0 10 0 0
FSM 72 55 77 54 / 0 10 0 0
MLC 70 53 78 55 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 74 43 76 45 / 10 10 0 0
FYV 69 50 76 53 / 0 10 0 0
BYV 68 54 75 55 / 0 10 0 0
MKO 70 51 76 55 / 0 10 0 0
MIO 71 48 74 53 / 0 10 0 0
F10 71 50 77 55 / 0 10 0 0
HHW 69 57 75 58 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ054>071.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...43
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