015
FXUS64 KTSA 181441
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
841 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 840 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- FIRE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY,
DUE TO THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL WILL BE HIGHEST
ON THURSDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN BY
THE WEEKEND.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 840 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 20S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE OK. THE
GRADIENT HAS RELAXED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH WINDS LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. SKIES WERE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, BUT SHOULD CLEAR
FROM NW TO SE THIS AFTERNOON. AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE BEHIND
PACIFIC FRONTS, THE COOLING IS OFFSET BY DOWNSLOPE WARMING AND
THAT WILL BE THE CASE TODAY. IN FACT, TODAY'S HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BE WARMER THAN THE CLOUDIER DAY YESTERDAY, IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER EASTERN CO. WIND GUSTS IN THE 15 TO
25 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75
IN NORTHEAST OK THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND DRY AIR IN PLACE, RHS WILL
DROP INTO THE 15 TO 25% RANGE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS WEST
OF HIGHWAY 75 WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS OVERLAP THE WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
LACY
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NE OK BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION THROUGH EARLY DAY WEDNESDAY. MUCH
DRIER AIR WILL BE THE MOST NOTABLE DIFFERENCE WITH THE AIRMASS
CHANGE AS TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH UNSEASONABLY WARM LEVELS
BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF E OK. A WINDOW FOR HEIGHTENED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS NE OK GIVEN THE VERY
LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS AND THE PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1037 PM CST TUE FEB 17 2026
THE ENERGETIC ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS WILL FEATURE ANOTHER
STRONG WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY THROUGH WED NIGHT
AND A BRIEF WINDOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. THURSDAY WILL HAVE WORSENING FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BEGINNING BY MID MORNING AS MUCH DRIER AIR QUICKLY FOLLOWS THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THE EARLY ONSET AND EXPANDING FOOTPRINT OF
HIGHER GRASSLAND FIRE SPREAD RATES COULD CREATE A PROLONGED DAY OF
FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD AND
THIS FRONT WILL MARK THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE WIND
SHIFT WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION.
WINDS RELAX THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE REGION. THE NEXT
FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. A BRIEF RAIN SNOW MIX MAY PASS NEAR THE
OK/KS BORDER BUT NO WINTER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANY
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VERY LIGHT. TEMPERATURES
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ARE LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A WARMING TREND THEREAFTER. DRY WEATHER IS
ALSO LIKELY TO CONTINUE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 515 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OK
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS WILL DROP AFTER SUNSET, WITH LLWS
RETURNING TO ALL AREAS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 77 51 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 78 54 76 37 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 79 55 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 76 46 68 26 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 76 52 74 31 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 75 55 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 77 55 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 73 53 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
F10 78 55 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 75 58 74 41 / 0 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR OKZ054>071.
AR...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011.
UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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