359
FXUS64 KTSA 182329
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
529 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1146 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOST OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FROM 9 AM UNTIL 8 PM THURSDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY
AND THURSDAY DUE TO THE WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
- A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOW PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
A SUBTLE AND VERY WEAK COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAS BROUGHT DEWPOINT/HUMIDITY VALUES
DOWN. WINDS ARE ALREADY BACK OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, ALBEIT LIGHT,
BUT WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE. ALTHOUGH WIND
SPEEDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY BREEZY TODAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON THAT LIMITED TO LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL EMERGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OK, ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OK ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75,
WHERE FIRE SPREAD RATES WILL RISE BETWEEN 150 AND 180 FT/MIN. A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT REMAINS IN PLACE TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST OK, GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM VINITA TO MCALESTER.
THE OTHER STORYLINE FOR THE DAY ARE THE ABNORMALLY HOT
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY CLIMBED INTO THE MID-UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES LATE THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL WARMING IS
EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES MAY APPROACH OR
REACH RECORD-BREAKING VALUES, WITH ALL 3 CLIMATE SITES (TUL, FYV,
FSM) AT RISK OF TYING OR BREAKING THEIR DAILY RECORDS.
WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING,
BUT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS. SOME MOISTURE
RECOVERY IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
OK, BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY/DEWPOINTS
FALLING ONCE THE SUN RISES THURSDAY MORNING. SKIES TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLEAR, WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST OK
AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW-MID 50S FOR
MOST PLACES.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST WED FEB 18 2026
THE MAIN FOCUS IN THE LONG-TERM PERIOD WILL BE FOCUSED ON THE
NEAR-CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SETUP TOMORROW (THURSDAY).
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AND RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FOOTHILLS OF THE ROCKIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SURFACE WINDS REALLY
CRANKING UP AFTER SUNRISE, LIKELY CAUSED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET
WINDS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS TURN MORE
WESTERLY AND WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
FIRST PSEUDO COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP WINDS GUSTY AND FURTHER DRY-OUT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT
FIRE WEATHER DAY. THE COMBINATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW AT OR NEAR THE SURFACE, A DRY
AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE, AND DRY FUELS WILL CAUSE NEAR-CRITICAL TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OK
AND NORTHWEST AR. WAS CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO UPGRADE THE CURRENT FIRE
WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING, WHICH GOES INTO EFFECT FROM
9 AM UNTIL 8 PM TOMORROW. WAS TEMPTED TO ADD ANOTHER ROW OF
COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH TO THE WARNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS STILL TOO LOW TO ADD ADDITIONAL COUNTIES AT THIS TIME MAINLY DUE
TO RECENT RAINS IN THOSE COUNTIES. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AFTER SUNSET THURSDAY, TURNING WINDS MORE
OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING BEFORE WINDS
DECREASE AND RH VALUES SLOW RISE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE AREA. ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY PASS TO THE
NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES (10-20%) STILL EXIST ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM, MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND AMOUNTS LOWER EACH RUN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA. HIGHEST CHANCES (20%) SEEING ANY MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE
ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW
FLURRIES MIXING WITH LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OK/KS AND MO/AR BORDERS
FOR A SMALL WINDOW EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. NO IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO AVERAGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO MONDAY BEFORE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES RETURN BY MIDWEEK. DRY WEATHER IS ALSO LIKELY TO
CONTINUE AND MAY PROMOTE ADDITIONAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT
WEEK.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SFC WINDS DECREASE THIS EVENING, BECOMING LESS THAN 10
KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. OVERNIGHT, THE LLJ STRENGTHENS
AND PRODUCES LLWS FOR ALL SITES, GUSTING TO 50 KTS. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NOTICEABLE REBOUND IN SFC WINDS DURING THIS TIME TOO,
ESPECIALLY NEAR DAYBREAK. A DRYLINE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING, SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25-30
KTS POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
DRYLINE THURSDAY MORNING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS SPREADING
INTO SE OK AND NW AR. TEMPO GROUPS WERE MAINTAINED FOR THESE AREAS
THURSDAY MORNING, THOUGH NORTHWARD EXTENT OF ANY LOW CLOUDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANY PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
BRIEF AS THE DRYLINE WILL SHUNT MOISTURE TO THE EAST. A SECONDARY
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
WHICH WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THE NORTHERLY COMPONENT OF SFC
WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 52 70 32 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 51 76 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 55 74 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 46 68 27 51 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 51 72 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 53 72 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 53 72 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 51 69 31 52 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 71 35 58 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 56 74 42 64 / 10 0 0 0
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>071.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...43
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