486
FXUS64 KTSA 190440
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1040 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
- DANGEROUS GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW AND ANY AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE FOOTPRINT OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY EXPAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING GUSTY
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. 00Z KOUN SOUNDING VERIFIED THE DEEP DRY
AIR THAT WILL SUPPORT SFC LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY ERODING WITH
MIXING AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NE OK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
WIND SHIFT FROM W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MARK AN IMPORTANT
FEATURE FOR ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS WHERE FIRES REMAIN
PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANY OF THESE FIRES WHICH REMAIN
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT COULD QUICKLY BECOME INVIGORATED BY MID MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
WINDS DECREASE AND POST FRONTAL COOLING AIDS HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY WITH
THE NEXT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TRENDS REMAIN FOR LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO FAR SE OK AND WESTERN AR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WARMING TREND RETURNS BY TUESDAY AND TEMPS QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID WEEK. NO APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE OK AND
W-CENTRAL AR SITES BETWEEN 10-14Z. WIDESPREAD LLWS IS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES, LEADING TO GUSTS UP TO 50KTS OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE SURFACE, WINDS HAVE DECREASED DURING THE
EVENING, BUT WILL REBOUND BY LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. A
PSEUDO-DRYLINE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING, WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT. THIS MAY RESULT IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE OK AND W-CENTRAL AR BEFORE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN.
WESTERLY SFC WINDS INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BY MID-LATE MORNING. AS
A TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM W TO NW. WIND GUSTS
TODAY WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN BETWEEN 20-30 KTS, THOUGH
ISOLATED GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE
OK. WINDS REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD,
BUT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH TIME, AS WELL AS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 52 71 31 55 / 0 0 0 0
FSM 52 76 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
MLC 54 74 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
BVO 45 69 25 52 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 52 73 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
BYV 53 72 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
MKO 54 72 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
MIO 52 69 29 52 / 0 0 0 0
F10 54 72 33 58 / 0 0 0 0
HHW 55 73 40 65 / 0 0 0 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR OKZ054>074.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 8 PM CST THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-002-
010-011-019-020.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...43
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