212
FXUS64 KTSA 191130
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
530 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
- DANGEROUS GRASSLAND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THURSDAY WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANY RAIN
CHANCES ARE LOW AND ANY AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT TIMES BEFORE SUNRISE ESPECIALLY WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS. THE FOOTPRINT OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
QUICKLY EXPAND AFTER SUNRISE WITH ALL AREAS EXPERIENCING GUSTY
CONDITIONS BY MID MORNING. 00Z KOUN SOUNDING VERIFIED THE DEEP DRY
AIR THAT WILL SUPPORT SFC LAYER MOISTURE QUICKLY ERODING WITH
MIXING AND RESULTANT HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING INTO THE 10 TO 20
PERCENT AREA WIDE BY AFTERNOON. WESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PREDOMINANT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH IS LIKELY TO MOVE INTO NE OK BY MID
AFTERNOON AND ADVANCE QUICKLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. THE
WIND SHIFT FROM W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MARK AN IMPORTANT
FEATURE FOR ANY ONGOING FIRE SUPPRESSION EFFORTS. THE RED FLAG
WARNING WAS EXTENDED IN AREA TO INCLUDE AREAS WHERE FIRES REMAIN
PRESENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ANY OF THESE FIRES WHICH REMAIN
ACTIVE OVERNIGHT COULD QUICKLY BECOME INVIGORATED BY MID MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING WHEN
WINDS DECREASE AND POST FRONTAL COOLING AIDS HUMIDITY RECOVERY.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1038 PM CST WED FEB 18 2026
COOLER TEMPS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED AREA WIDE ON FRIDAY WITH
THE NEXT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. TRENDS REMAIN FOR LITTLE TO NO APPRECIABLE RAINFALL
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND RAIN CHANCES REMAIN VERY LOW AND
LARGELY CONFINED TO FAR SE OK AND WESTERN AR. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL BRING REINFORCING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WARMING TREND RETURNS BY TUESDAY AND TEMPS QUICKLY WARM TO ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMALS BY MID WEEK. NO APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST THU FEB 19 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER A BRIEF RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR AT THE START OF THE FORECAST MAY
RESULT IN TRANSIENT MVFR CEILINGS IN THESE AREAS. SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE NOTABLY BY MID MORNING WITH GUSTS 25-30
KNOTS COMMON, AND A FEW GUSTS AROUND 35 KNOTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS GRADUALLY SIFT TO THE NE FROM LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING WITH A COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS EVENTUALLY DROPPING
OFF TONIGHT AS WINDS CONTINUE TO TREND MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 71 31 55 33 / 0 0 0 10
FSM 76 37 64 41 / 0 0 0 10
MLC 74 35 63 39 / 0 0 0 10
BVO 69 25 52 28 / 0 0 0 10
FYV 73 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 10
BYV 72 32 56 37 / 0 0 0 10
MKO 72 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 10
MIO 69 29 52 33 / 0 0 0 10
F10 72 33 58 37 / 0 0 0 10
HHW 73 40 65 46 / 0 0 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR OKZ054>074.
AR...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CST THIS EVENING
FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020.
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...14
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