254
FNUS74 KTSA 032207
FWSTSA
SPOT FORECAST FOR SHUPERT BURN...ARKANSAS DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE FORESTRY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
407 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 CST ON MARCH 04.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
PLEASE CONTACT NWS TULSA AT (918)838-7838, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
OR CONCERNS WITH THIS FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED OVER WESTERN OKLAHOMA TO EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI AS OF MID AFTERNOON TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT, BECOMING LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND CONTINUING
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND ALSO A LIMITED TORNADO THREAT. A HEAVY RAIN
THREAT ALSO EXISTS WITH FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOCALLY GREATER
THAN 1.5 INCHES ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEDNESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). SHOWERS LIKELY IN THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. SHOWERS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 68.
MIN HUMIDITY........78 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............61.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 6 TO 8 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH LATE
IN THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2200 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 14 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD (32131 KNOT-FT).
STABILITY CLASS.....3.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).64.
TIME (CST) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........94 84 87 89 83 91 91 90
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............64 65 65 66 66 68 68 68
DEWPOINT........60 60 61 61 61 62 61 61
RH..............87 84 87 84 84 81 78 78
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 7 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.16 14 14 14 14 14 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.7 2.0 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.2 0.8
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S SW S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.17 18 17 20 18 18 16 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..32 32 36 36 36 36 36 36
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).64 64 64 64 65 65 65 65
WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY (85-95 PERCENT). THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN
THE EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 57.
MAX HUMIDITY........96 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............58.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 6 MPH EARLY IN THE EVENING
BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND
5 MPH OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT. GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
IN THE EVENING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 7 TO 13 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST 6
TO 8 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (5901 KNOT-FT).
STABILITY CLASS.....6.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).64.
TIME (CST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........88 87 88 89 90 90 91 91 91 91 91 90
WEATHER COV.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............65 64 64 64 63 62 61 60 60 59 59 58
DEWPOINT........60 59 58 58 58 57 57 57 56 56 56 56
RH..............84 84 81 81 84 84 87 90 87 90 90 93
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S SW SW SW S
20 FT WIND SPD..5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 3
20 FT WIND GUST.10 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 8
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S SW SW W SW SW
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 10 10 12 10 8 7 7 8 8 7 6
VRATE KT-FT/1K..6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).65 66 66 66 66 66 66 65 64 64 63 64
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY (75-85 PERCENT). RAIN SHOWERS
LIKELY IN THE MORNING. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE DAY. CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 67.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
DEWPOINT............57.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 8 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 6 TO 15 MPH INCREASING TO 14 TO 17 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (11803 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO GOOD (37377 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
STABILITY CLASS.....4.
1700FT AVG MIX T(F).64.
TIME (CST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........90 90 91 91 90 88 87 85 82 80 74 67
WEATHER COV.....LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
TEMP............58 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 66 67 67 67
DEWPOINT........56 57 57 58 58 58 58 58 59 59 59 59
RH..............93 96 93 93 90 87 84 81 78 75 75 75
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 14 14 13 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.3 1.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 7 8 10 12 12 13 15 16 17 16 14
VRATE KT-FT/1K..12 12 12 12 12 12 37 37 37 37 37 37
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
1700FT MIX T(F).64 63 63 63 63 63 64 64 64 65 65 66
FORECASTER...JANKOWSKI
REQUESTED BY...JERALD MCBRIDE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2604670.0/TSA
.DELDT 03/03/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JERALD.MCBRIDE@ARKANSAS.GOV
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