233
FXUS64 KTSA 052350
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
550 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 538 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
- LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK.
- POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED CONVECTION PERSISTS NORTH OF A RETREATING
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OK LATE THIS MORNING.
OVERALL INTENSITY CONTINUES TO WANE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK INTO EAST
CENTRAL AR AT PRESENT, THOUGH SOME VERY LOCALIZED ADDITIONAL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE STILL POSSIBLE NEAR AND A LITTLE
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS WARM FRONT
CONTINUES LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SUBTLE ENERGY IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS, BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE SEVERE.
FOCUS FOR MORE ROBUST CONVECTION WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST OK AND
NORTHWEST TX THIS EVENING, WITH CAMS SUGGESTING AN EVOLUTION FROM
SUPERCELLS INTO AN INTENSE CLUSTER MOVING NORTHEAST AND
APPROACHING FAR NORTHEAST OK SOMETIME AFTER 06Z. EXPECTATIONS
REMAIN THAT THIS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT
BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE THROUGH EASTERN OK AND WESTERN AR. STILL A
DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY CARRY INTO AREAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY
75 EARLY TONIGHT.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1112 AM CST THU MAR 5 2026
FRIDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A MORE ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER
DAY ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, THOUGH THIS THREAT IS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL. STRONG WESTERN CONUS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO
UNDERGO A SPLIT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH NORTHERN
BRANCH EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERN BRANCH
CUTTING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS NORTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVES EAST,
SEASONABLY STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SPREAD OVER OUR REGION, BUT
STRONGER FORCING SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.
THERE ARE ALSO SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT. ONGOING MORNING STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK WILL MOST
LIKELY WEAKEN BY AFTERNOON, BUT COULD HAVE SOME IMPACT ON THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IF IT LINGERS. IN ADDITION A STRONG EML WILL
SPREAD OVER THE REGION AND RESULT IN STRONG CAPPING WHICH COULD BE
TOUGH TO BREAK GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BREAK OUT CONVECTION DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE OPEN WARM SECTOR, WHICH WOULD POSE A THREAT
OF ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER. BY EVENING, COLD FRONT OVERTAKES
THE DRY LINE LOCATED TO OUR WEST AND THIS LIKELY WILL FORCE A BAND
OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS WILL BE LESSER. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
REMAINS PRESENT AS PWAT VALUES REMAIN WELL ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE,
WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF 3-4" PER HOUR RAIN RATES LOCALLY.
AS COLD FRONT SWEEPS SOUTH BY SATURDAY, GENERALLY COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS PREVAIL ASIDE FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OK WHICH REMAIN
NEAR THE 850 MB FRONT. THIS EVENTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH WITH RAIN
CHANCES ENDING, LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING. COOLER AIR WILL RESULT
IN POTENTIAL FOR A LIGHT FROST OR FREEZE NEAR OK/KS BORDER AND
PERHAPS FAR NORTHWEST AR. THE SW CONUS CUTOFF LOW IS EVENTUALLY
EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY NEXT WEEK, WITH
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURNING TUE/WED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST THU MAR 5 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE TEMPORARILY BROKEN UP SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO KANSAS. TIMING OF REDEVELOPMENT REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN GIVEN LIKELIHOOD OF PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN OK. MORE CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR CONDITIONS RETURNING TO ALL TERMINALS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.
FURTHER COMPLICATING FORECAST IS REMNANT CONVECTION MOVING EAST
FROM CENTRAL OK AND IMPACTING NORTHEAST OK TERMINALS OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED TEMPO GROUPS TO WHEN LATEST CAMS HAVE MOST AGREEMENT ON
STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
ONSET OF 40-50KT LOW LEVEL JET AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG WITH SURFACE LOW
LIFTING TO OUR WEST WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 76 45 62 / 50 70 70 20
FSM 61 80 58 71 / 20 60 90 50
MLC 63 77 51 66 / 30 80 80 40
BVO 59 75 41 61 / 70 60 70 10
FYV 59 77 50 67 / 20 70 90 40
BYV 61 76 55 65 / 20 50 90 40
MKO 61 75 48 61 / 40 80 80 30
MIO 61 74 45 59 / 40 70 80 20
F10 61 75 47 60 / 40 80 70 20
HHW 62 76 58 67 / 20 80 90 70
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24
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