128
FXUS64 KTSA 060616
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1216 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1216 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTHEAST OK.
- POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY DEVELOP
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, WITH CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
- UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
INCREASING SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WERE
AIDING 60+ DEG DEWPOINTS TO BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. ALOFT A 30-50KT LOW LEVEL JET
WAS COMMON ACROSS THE REGION WITH AXISES OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND INSTABILITY OVER WEST/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. WITHIN THIS AIRMASS,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING AND MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS FRIDAY, THE LOW LEVEL JET CORE IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHILE THE CONVERGENCE
AND WEAKENING INSTABILITY AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD. IN RESPONSE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE INTO PARTS OF
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL ALONG AND NORTHWEST
OF INTERSTATE 44. WITH THE WEAKENING INSTABILITY THROUGH SUNRISE,
SEVERE POTENTIALS REMAIN LIMITED WITH LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST/NORTHEAST.
THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE MORNING
CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INFLUENCE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT WITH ANY
REMNANT OUTFLOWS. THERE COULD BE A LULL IN PRECIP COVERAGE EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TRY TO REACH NEAR OR
EXCEED...DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER...THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE. AT THE SAME TIME, A 0-3KM THETA-E AXIS...CURRENTLY
OUT TO THE WEST...SETS UP OVER THE CWA DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. IT IS ALONG THIS AXIS COMBINED WITH THE ONGOING
LOW LEVEL JET AND BOTH SURFACE/ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THIS DEVELOPMENT
COULD START TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA AND EXPAND INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS, WITH STORM DEVELOPMENT CARRYING AN INCREASED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE THREAT FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A TORNADO THREAT EXISTS INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT GETTING PUSHED SOUTHEAST FROM A
WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE SEVERE THREAT CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SOUTHEASTWARD PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OVER FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
INTO WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHILE THE
ELEVATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY LAGS A FEW COUNTIES BEHIND. THUS, THE
GREATER STORM AND SEVERE POTENTIALS SHOULD WEAKEN LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, AND SHOULD EXIT
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY ONCE THE MID LEVEL FRONT DEPARTS THE
REGION.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT, A HEAVY
RAIN THREAT EXISTS. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE REGION
HAS ALLOWED FOR PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING THE 99TH
PERCENT-TILE FOR MARCH TO BE COMMON ACROSS THE CWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF A HALF INCH TO LOCALLY IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES ARE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON THE PRECISE LOCATIONS
OF THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS, COMBINED WITH RECENT RAINS, COULD CREATE
AN INCREASE IN FLOOD CONCERNS. THE GREATER POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES EARLY MORNING FRIDAY ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO CHANGE
MUCH THROUGH SUNRISE AND THEN WARM INTO THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE FRONT, WHILE
MID/UPPER 50S REMAIN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE FILTERS INTO THE REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER CONDITIONS. THE PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS THAT PUSHED OUT THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY IS PROGGED TO
FINALLY PUSH EASTWARD NEXT WEEK WITH A CUTOFF LOW MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON TIMING OF THE
WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION. FOR NOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOK
TO RETURN MONDAY WITH A PIECE OF ELEVATED ENERGY QUICKLY MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION, AND THEN INCREASE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. SEVERE
POTENTIALS COULD AGAIN ARISE WITH THESE ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES.
THIS SET UP WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS THE MOVE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1216 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS TRYING TO DEVELOP ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
EXITING STORM COMPLEX ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL OK. EXPECT CONVECTION TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH AFTER 09Z ACROSS NORTHEAST OK AND
SPREAD NORTHEAST AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. EARLY DAY CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO OK BEFORE NEW STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS
SOUTHERN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE SITES. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES ON TIMING OF MVFR
CEILINGS MID TO LATE FRIDAY MORNING. MAINTAINED PREVIOUS THOUGHT OF
STRATOCU DECK MOVING INTO TERMINALS 15-16Z. WITH OVERTURNING
ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTION AND RESIDUAL SURFACED HEATING,
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN BETWEEN STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH APPROACHING 30KT AT KTUL AND
NORTHWEST AR SITES FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 63 76 46 60/ 40 70 70 10
FSM 63 80 60 68/ 10 80 90 49
MLC 64 77 54 62/ 20 80 80 34
BVO 60 76 40 59/ 70 60 70 07
FYV 60 77 53 63/ 10 70 80 29
BYV 61 76 55 64/ 10 50 80 33
MKO 62 76 47 60/ 30 80 80 19
MIO 61 74 44 58/ 40 70 80 12
F10 63 76 46 59/ 30 80 70 11
HHW 64 77 60 66/ 20 80 90 67
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...24
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