438
FXUS64 KTSA 062339
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
539 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1116 AM PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
- POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH ALL
MODES POSSIBLE MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- CONTINUED HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
WITH A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT.
- DRY FOR SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH TONIGHT )
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY IS STILL ANTICIPATED OVER THE LOCAL
AREA FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT, THOUGH DETAILS REGARDING
THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST THREAT REMAIN UNCLEAR. AT THIS TIME, THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER-END SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS, WITH AREAS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 75 GENERALLY FAVORED, BUT THIS THREAT REMAINS HIGHLY
CONDITIONAL. BLUF...RESIDENTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
AND NORTHWEST AR NEED TO REMAIN ALERT TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
AND KEEP UP WITH THE FORECAST AS DETAILS START TO EMERGE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
AT PRESENT, A BAND OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ALONG AND
WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OK IN A ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS AND LIFT IT NORTH
INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH MAKES SENSE, BUT THEY HAVE
STRUGGLED WITH THE INITIALIZATION. FOR THE MOMENT THESE REMAIN
SUB-SEVERE, THOUGH MUCPAE OF AROUND 1000 DOES SUPPORT A HAIL
THREAT. ONE SIGNAL THAT HAS EMERGED IN THE DATA IS FOR ADDITIONAL
DISCRETE CELLS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN AN AXIS OF
STRONGER SFC-BASED INSTABILITY THAT SPREADS NORTH INTO SE OK AND
EVENTUALLY POINTS NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY SIGNS OF THIS
COULD BE IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX,
WHICH WOULD LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THIS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR.
SHOULD THESE SUSTAIN, THIS MIGHT BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING. BUT AGAIN, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS QUITE
HIGH.
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FORCED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. STILL NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE IMPACTED BY STORMS TODAY, BUT FRONTAL STORMS
SHOULD AT LEAST POSE A LIMITED WIND THREAT OVERNIGHT, WHILE
BECOMING MORE FOCUSED OVER SOUTHEAST OK AND INTO WC AR WITH TIME.
FRONT MAY TEND TO UNDERCUT STORMS WHICH COULD BE A LIMITING
FACTOR AS WELL.
FINALLY, WORTH NOTING THAT PWAT VALUES WELL ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY
RESIDE OVER THE REGION, AND WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES IN
MORE SUSTAINED CONVECTION. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD END UP
HIGHLY VARIABLE, BUT AT LEAST LOCALIZED 3-4" AMOUNTS ARE FEASIBLE
AND WOULD RESULT IN SOME FLASH FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY FROM SE OK THROUGH NW AR.
LONG TERM
(TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1116 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY NEAR THE
FRONTAL ZONE AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT LEAST.
LINGERING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES, THOUGH MOST
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ELEVATED, OUTSIDE POTENTIALLY AREAS
NEAR THE RED RIVER EARLY. ONCE THIS FINALLY CLEARS THE AREA, QUIET
CONDITIONS PREVAIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH A LIGHT FREEZE
POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOME OF NE OK AND NW AR.
CUTOFF PORTION OF UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO EJECT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING. SOME ADDITIONAL FLOODING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL
LIKELY EXIST INTO MID-WEEK. PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRANSITION
BACK TO A MORE SETTLED WNW FLOW ALOFT LATE NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NE OK SITES OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LOWERED VSBY AND LIGHTNING ALONG WITH SOME
PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. STORMS
WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NW AR SITES LATER THIS EVENING WHILE A COLD
FRONT DROPS INTO NE OK TOWARD THE MIDNIGHT HOUR. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THE FRONT
WILL ALSO BRING A WIND SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY
REMAIN VFR THROUGH A LOT OF THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SOME MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
BOWLAN
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 46 61 38 72 / 60 10 0 0
FSM 58 70 43 74 / 90 60 10 0
MLC 50 66 41 74 / 80 30 10 0
BVO 41 60 33 72 / 60 0 0 0
FYV 50 67 37 73 / 80 50 10 0
BYV 55 65 38 69 / 90 50 10 0
MKO 48 62 37 71 / 80 20 10 0
MIO 45 58 36 68 / 80 0 0 0
F10 46 60 37 71 / 70 10 10 0
HHW 57 68 46 71 / 90 70 40 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...04
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