313
FXUS64 KTSA 071126
AFDTSA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
526 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 526 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
- COOLER WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT, AS WELL AS AN END TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
- DRY FOR SUNDAY, BUT ADDITIONAL STORM CHANCES RETURN EARLY TO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
AS OF 11 PM FRIDAY, A COMPLEX MODE OF STRONG AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ONGOING AND CONTINUES TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTHEAST OK LATE THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS EARLIER PRODUCED
MULTIPLE TORNADOES, INCLUDING IN THE TULSA METRO. THEY HAVE SINCE
MOVED INTO FAR EASTERN OK, WITH SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
CURRENTLY OCCURRING IN SOUTHEAST OK, JUST SOUTH OF I-40. VAD WIND
PROFILE FROM KINX INDICATES A STOUT 45-55 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN
PLACE. THE LOW- LEVEL JET, IN COMBINATION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
60S AND 0-3KM SRH VALUES AROUND 400 M2/S2, WILL MAINTAIN THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND POSSIBLY A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES BEYOND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR FAR EASTERN OK,
SOUTHEAST OK, AND NORTHWEST AR. A TORNADO WATCH NOW INCLUDES ALL
OF NORTHWEST AR AND WEST- CENTRAL AR, IN ADDITION TO FAR EASTERN
OK AND SOUTHEAST OK, UNTIL 4 AM SATURDAY MORNING.
FOCUS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT FROM THE ONGOING AFOREMENTIONED WARM
SECTOR STORMS TO STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RIDING ALONG AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY JUST NORTH OF THE OK/KS
BORDER. HI-RES MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING A SQUALL
LINE OF STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS QUICKLY DEVELOPING AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO NORTHEAST OK. IN FACT, RADAR IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO
SHOW THIS DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AROUND 60-70 MPH WILL
BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND QLCS TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG
AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO DWINDLE FAIRLY QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS A MUCH MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FOLLOWS. WITH THAT SAID, WANT TO RE-EMPHASIZE THAT
THE SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN INTACT UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.
TIMING OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE FLUID, BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THE POSITION OF THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE TULSA METRO
AROUND OR BY 3 AM AND FROM CARROLL COUNTY, AR TO PUSHMATAHA
COUNTY, OK BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA BY 8 OR 9 AM, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM OVERRUNNING LINGERING ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE
CHANCES COMPLETELY SHUT OFF. CLOUD COVER WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY EVENING.
AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
AND 50S NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY, WITH LOW-MID
60S SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM UP SOME
IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT WITH BRISK NORTHERLY WINDS (ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING) AND MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAYTIME,
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 40S AND 50S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. DID LOWER TEMPERATURES DOWN
ABOUT 5 DEGREES FROM WHAT NBM GUIDANCE WAS PRODUCING, AND EVEN
THESE TEMPERATURES MAY BE SLIGHTLY TOO WARM IN SPOTS. WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO FALL CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 30S NORTH OF I-40 TO LOW-MID 40S SOUTH
OF I-40.
MEJIA
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SCOOTS EAST OF THE AREA. THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PROMOTE
A WARMING TREND THROUGH TUESDAY. ALOFT, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SPLIT OFF FROM THE MAIN JET STREAM AND CLOSE OFF OVER BAJA CA BY
SATURDAY EVENING/SUNDAY MORNING AND WILL RESULT IN QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW OVER THE AREA. A WEAK PERTURBATION, ORIGINATING FROM
SOUTHWEST TX, IN THE FLOW WILL DRIFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL CAUSE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM, MAINLY IMPACTED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OK AND WEST-CENTRAL AR
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RECOVERY FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR FAR SOUTHEAST OK MONDAY
MORNING, WHERE THE MOST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE. BY THE
AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE ABOVE 2000 J/KG IN
THIS PARTICULAR AREA. THIS COULD BE PROBLEMATIC IF CONVECTION IS
ABLE TO HANG AROUND OR REDEVELOP ALONG EXISTING BOUNDARIES IN THE
AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO KEEP MONITORING TRENDS.
THE CLOSED-OFF BAJA CA LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE OVER NORTHWEST
MEXICO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL LOW ON TUESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY, MOISTURE, AND LIFTING WILL ALL BE IN PLACE
FOR ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HEAVY AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS ALSO EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH THIS SAME STORM SYSTEM TUESDAY NIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS SETUP WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON AND THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WILL FOLLOW PUSH
ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
IN BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS AND RAIN CHANCES WILL FALL OFF BY OR
BEFORE MID-EVENING WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF
NICELY BEHIND THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE, BUT STILL ABOVE AVERAGE, WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH A WARM UP BY NEXT FRIDAY.
MEJIA
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST SAT MAR 7 2026
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS WILL PERSIST AT ALL EXCEPT THE NE OK
TERMINALS FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD,
GIVEN OBSERVATIONS OF PLENTY OF LIGHTNING IN THE STRATIFORM AREA
TRAILING THE MAIN CONVECTIVE LINE. BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION, A
MULTI-HOUR OF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD IMPACT ALL OF THE
TERMINALS, WITH AN UPWARD TREND INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
LOW CHANCE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR CEILINGS OVERNIGHT EXISTS BUT
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO PRECLUDE INCLUSION IN THE TAFS FOR
NOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
TUL 56 38 72 52 / 10 0 0 0
FSM 64 43 74 51 / 70 20 0 10
MLC 58 41 73 54 / 40 20 0 10
BVO 56 33 72 47 / 0 0 0 0
FYV 60 36 73 50 / 60 10 0 0
BYV 62 38 70 51 / 60 10 0 0
MKO 56 38 71 50 / 30 10 0 0
MIO 54 35 68 49 / 0 0 0 0
F10 56 38 71 53 / 30 10 0 0
HHW 67 46 71 54 / 90 40 10 10
TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22
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